unbekannter Gast

Serbia: Economy#

Serbia has a transitional economy largely dominated by market forces, but the state sector remains significant in certain areas and many institutional reforms are needed. The economy relies on manufacturing and exports, driven largely by foreign investment. MILOSEVIC-era mismanagement of the economy, an extended period of international economic sanctions, civil war, and the damage to Yugoslavia's infrastructure and industry during the NATO airstrikes in 1999 left the economy only half the size it was in 1990. After the ousting of former Federal Yugoslav President MILOSEVIC in September 2000, the Democratic Opposition of Serbia (DOS) coalition government implemented stabilization measures and embarked on a market reform program. After renewing its membership in the IMF in December 2000, Serbia continued to reintegrate into the international community by rejoining the World Bank (IBRD) and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD). Serbia has made progress in trade liberalization and enterprise restructuring and privatization, but many large enterprises - including the power utilities, telecommunications company, natural gas company, and others - remain in state hands. Serbia has made some progress towards EU membership, signing a Stabilization and Association Agreement with Brussels in May 2008, and with full implementation of the Interim Trade Agreement with the EU in February 2010, gained candidate status in March 2012. In January 2014, Serbia's EU accession talks officially opened. Serbia's negotiations with the World Trade Organization are advanced, with the country's complete ban on the trade and cultivation of agricultural biotechnology products representing the primary remaining obstacle to accession. Serbia's program with the IMF was frozen in early 2012 because the 2012 budget approved by parliament deviated from the program parameters; the arrangement is now void. However, an IMF mission visited Serbia in February 2014 to initiate discussions with Serbian authorities on a possible new IMF arrangement and these talks will continue following the formation of the new government. High unemployment and stagnant household incomes are ongoing political and economic problems. Structural economic reforms needed to ensure the country's long-term prosperity have largely stalled since the onset of the global financial crisis. Growing budget deficits constrain the use of stimulus efforts to revive the economy and contribute to growing concern of a public debt crisis, given that Serbia's total public debt as a share of GDP doubled between 2008 and 2013. Serbia's concerns about inflation and exchange-rate stability may preclude the use of expansionary monetary policy. During the recent election campaign, the victorious SNS party promised comprehensive economic reform during the first half of 2014 to address issues with the fiscal deficit, state-owned enterprises, the labor market, construction permits, bankruptcy and privatization, and other areas. Major challenges ahead include: high unemployment rates and the need for job creation; high government expenditures for salaries, pensions, healthcare, and unemployment benefits; a growing need for new government borrowing; rising public and private foreign debt; attracting new foreign direct investment; and getting the IMF program back on track. Other serious longer-term challenges include an inefficient judicial system, high levels of corruption, and an aging population. Factors favorable to Serbia's economic growth include its strategic location, a relatively inexpensive and skilled labor force, and free trade agreements with the EU, Russia, Turkey, and countries that are members of the Central European Free Trade Agreement (CEFTA).

Economic Facts#

GDP (purchasing power parity)$80.47 billion (2013 est.)
$78.89 billion (2012 est.)
$80.3 billion (2011 est.)
note: data are in 2013 US dollars
GDP - real growth rate2% (2013 est.)
-1.7% (2012 est.)
1.6% (2011 est.)
GDP - per capita (PPP)$11,100 (2013 est.)
$10,900 (2012 est.)
$11,100 (2011 est.)
note: data are in 2013 US dollars
GDP - composition, by sector of originagriculture: 7.9%
industry: 31.8%
services: 60.3% (2013 est.)
Population below poverty line9.1% (2013 est.)
Labor force - by occupationagriculture: 23.9%
industry: 16.5%
services: 59.6% (2013 est.)
Exports - commoditiesiron and steel, rubber, clothes, wheat, fruit and vegetables, nonferrous metals, electric appliances, metal products, weapons and ammunition, automobiles
Agriculture - productswheat, maize, sunflower, sugar beets, fruits (raspberries, apples, sour cherries), vegetables (tomatoes, peppers, potatoes), beef, pork, and meat products, milk and dairy products, grapes/wine
Budgetrevenues: $17.47 billion
expenditures: $19.6 billion
note: this is the consolidated budget, including both central government and local goverment budgets (2013 est.)
Exchange ratesSerbian dinars (RSD) per US dollar -
85.67 (2013 est.)
87.992 (2012 est.)
77.729 (2010 est.)
67.634 (2009)
62.9 (2008)
Exports$14.61 billion (2013 est.)
$11.35 billion (2012 est.)
Debt - external$33.6 billion (31 December 2013 est.)
$33.42 billion (31 December 2012 est.)
Imports$20.54 billion (2013 est.)
$19.01 billion (2012 est.)
Industrial production growth rate5.5% (2013 est.)
Industriesautomobiles, base metals, furniture, food processing, machinery, chemicals, sugar, tires, clothes, pharmaceuticals
Inflation rate (consumer prices)2.2% (2013 est.)
12.2% (2012 est.)
Labor force1.703 million (2013 est.)
Unemployment rate20.1% (2013 est.)
22.4% (2012 est.)
Distribution of family income - Gini index38 (2013 est.)
28.2 (2008 est.)
Public debt61.2% of GDP (2013 est.)
59.3% of GDP (2012 est.)
note: data cover general government debt, and includes debt instruments issued or owned by government entities other than the treasury (for which the GOS issued guarantees); the data include treasury debt held by foreign entities; the data include debt issued by subnational entities (for which the GOS issued guarantees), as well as intra-governmental debt; intra-governmental debt consists of treasury borrowings from surpluses in the social funds, such as for retirement, medical care, and unemployment, debt instruments for the social funds are not sold at public auctions
Current account balance-$1.807 billion (2013 est.)
-$4.012 billion (2012 est.)
Reserves of foreign exchange and gold$15.87 billion (31 December 2013 est.)
$14.4 billion (31 December 2012 est.)
GDP (official exchange rate)$43.68 billion (2013 est.)
Stock of direct foreign investment - at home$26.41 billion (31 December 2009 est.)
$11.95 billion (2006 est.)
Stock of direct foreign investment - abroad$NA
Market value of publicly traded shares$9.199 billion (31 December 2013 est.)
$7.451 billion (31 December 2012)
$8.365 billion (31 December 2011 est.)
Central bank discount rate9.5% (18 March 2014)
11.75% (6 February 2013)
Commercial bank prime lending rate13.85% (31 December 2013 est.)
14.99% (31 December 2012 est.)
Stock of domestic credit$25.48 billion (31 December 2013 est.)
$26.26 billion (31 December 2012 est.)
Stock of narrow money$4.626 billion (31 December 2013 est.)
$3.595 billion (31 December 2012 est.)
Stock of broad money$20.47 billion (31 December 2013 est.)
$19.12 billion (31 December 2012 est.)
Taxes and other revenues40% of GDP (2013 est.)
Budget surplus (+) or deficit (-)-4.9% of GDP (2013 est.)
GDP - composition, by end usehousehold consumption: 75.8%
government consumption: 19.2%
investment in fixed capital: 16.3%
investment in inventories: 5.4%
exports of goods and services: 42.7%
imports of goods and services: -59.4%
(2013 est.)
Gross national saving26.7% of GDP (2013 est.)
28.3% of GDP (2012 est.)
22.6% of GDP (2011 est.)