Seite - 244 - in Book of Full Papers - Symposium Hydro Engineering

of basin is more obvious because of its special geological conditions and altitude characters. It is predicted that the overall temperature of the basin is on the rise in the next 50 years under the background of greenhouse gas emissions, and the increase of temperature is about 0.25 ~ 0.41 /10a. (5) Extreme weather events The characteristics of extreme precipitation events are demonstrated by spatial distribution and intensity analysis of extreme precipitation events and continuous drought events. 1) Extreme precipitation The daily maximum precipitation has reached more than 300mm in 2 stations, which are located in the middle of the basin, while the precipitation in most areas is between about 100 mm~300mm. The distribution of the maximum 3-day precipitation was similar to the daily one. Furthermore, the maximum consecutive precipitation time has reached more than 40 days in 5 stations in the southeast area of the basin. 2) Extreme drought Continuous drought events had occurred more than 10 times in 14 stations in 55 years in the upstream of TGP, and occurred most in Qingshui river(20times)，followed by Zunyi(14 times)，while the events occurred 3~9 times in other areas. 4. THE INFLUENCE OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE TGP RESERVOIR The influence of climate change on the operation of the TGP reservoir is manifested in two aspects: on the one hand, the change of precipitation and temperature which are caused by climate change, leads to the runoff change and the inflow variation. On the other hand, climate change causes extreme weather and special hydrological events, proposing higher requirements in the emergency dispatching. Therefore, it is necessary to analyze the variation characteristics of inflow and sum up the new requirements for the dispatching in extreme events, so as to lay a foundation for the optimization of the reservoir operation rule in the new environment. 4.1. RUNOFF CHANGE IN THE TGP RESERVOIR Through analyzing the change trend of annual average inflow in the TGP reservoir based on 1963~2017 years’ data, it shows that the overall annual runoff has a downward trend. After comparing the runoff in the trend fitting line, it is found that the measured runoff before 80s is more than the average value, and less than average after that (Fig.1). 244