Seite - 272 - in Book of Full Papers - Symposium Hydro Engineering

efficient. (4)The four reservoirs have similar project scale and flood control standard, and all meet the requirements for flood control. Actually, the procedure will be more applicable for earth and rock-fill dams rather than concrete dams. However, this procedure will contribute to establish a systematical risk assessment method for dam safety. 5. SUMMARY Based on 40000 stochastic simulations of flood inflow for four reservoirs, the P-III distribution of inflow flood, flood regulation and reservoir operation are taken into account. The probabilities of flood overtopping, stage exceeding several critical levels are calculated based on the 40000 stochastic samples for each cascade. Refer to study on acceptable risk analysis, in the view of dam safety itself, flood control capability of dam and flood control for downstream regions protected by dam, the procedure of assessment for risk analysis of flood control and dam safety are proposed. References [1] XIAO Y., GUO S. L., XIONG L. H., LUO Z. Research review on acceptable risk level for dam safety assessment. Journal of Safety and Environment. 2005,5(3): 90-94.(in Chinese) [2] DEFRA. Flood and reservoir safety integration. Final report. 2002.8. [3] SALMON G. M., HARTFORD D. N. D. Risk analysis for dam safety. International water power and dam construction. 1995, 47(3): 42-47; 1995, 47(4): 38-39. [4] YANG B. Y., WANG R. C., AN Z. G. Risk analysis of flood relief of single reservoir. Hydrology. 1999,4: 5-12. (in Chinese) [5] XU Z. X., GUO Z. Z. Reliability study on schemes of spillway layout for Ertan hydropower station. SHUILI XUEBAO. 1990(3): 48-52. (in Chinese) [6] ZHOU X. B., ZHOU J. P., DU X. H., WANG Y. J., LI S. Y. Study on risk acceptance criteria for dams in China. Journal of hydroelectric engineering. 2015,34(1):63-72. (in Chinese) [7] XU Z. X., GUO Z. Z. Risk calculation for flood releasing of open spillway. SHUILI XUEBAO. 1989(4): 51-54. (in Chinese) [8] MEI Y. D., TAN G. M. Risk analysis for flood prevention and safety of dam. Engineering Journal of Wuhan University. 2002,35(6): 11-15. (in Chinese) [9] CHEN Y. F. Method and application of statistical experiment. Heilongjiang People’s Publishing House: 2000: 46. (in Chinese) [10] VILLARINI G., SMITH A. J., SERINALDI F., BALES J., BATES D. P., Witold 272