Seite - 448 - in Book of Full Papers - Symposium Hydro Engineering

The current hydrologic safety assessment is based on the analysis of the ability to discharge into weir. In this study, To analyze the impacts on climate change, climate change scenarios PMP(RCP 4.5 2040s) were used to assess hydrological safety. And it intends to further assess the factors that may cause a burden on the operation of the target dams in the future. The factors are criteria 4~6. In order to estimate the long-term variability of climate factors using the data of climate change scenarios, We used the minimum temperature that can affect monthly maximum rainfall, annual rainfall intensity and dam condition. Table 1. Hydrological safety evaluation 3 step Evaluation step Evaluation contents Evaluation standard 1st Evaluation for freeboard allowance and overflow Whether or not to secure dam freeboard 2nd Evaluation of structural safety for overflow(PMF) Dam structural stability during overtopping for the PMF 3rd Evaluation for downstream hazard(PMF) Assessment downstream for PMF Table 2 Long term climate effect factor Evaluation step Evaluation contents 1st Rate of Monthly maximum rainfall 2nd Ratio of rainfall intensity to rainfall 3rd Minimum temperature 2.2. MULTI-CRITERIA DECISION MAKING(MCDM) Multiple-criteria decision-making is a sub-discipline of operations research that explicitly considers multiple criteria in decision-making environments (Triantaphyllou, 2000). Pareto optimal solution is a concept in multi-criteria optimization that allows for the optimization of multiple criteria. MCDM is the process of finding such a Pareto optimal solution (Alternative) on a variety of criteria (Criteria) and shown in Fig. 2(Kim, 2013). 448