Seite - 527 - in Book of Full Papers - Symposium Hydro Engineering

Table 3 Percentage of changes in sub-basins discharge under climate change condition Scenario- Period GCM1: ECHAM5-OM Scenario- Period GCM2: HadCM3 T1 M2 S 3 B4 T M S B A1B- 2020 -8 2 -5 -7 A1B- 2020 -1 7 0 -14 A1B- 2050 -12 -12 -1 -15 A1B- 2050 -6 -6 0 -8 A1B- 2080 -8 2 -5 -7 A1B- 2080 -9 -9 3 -10 A2- 2020 -8 -1 -6 -8 A2- 2020 -13 -4 -9 -10 A2- 2050 -15 -10 -6 -15 A2- 2050 -11 -5 -1 -10 A2- 2080 -13 -26 2 -20 A2- 2080 2 -5 13 -6 B1- 2020 -4 3 -3 -6 B1- 2020 -17 -6 -12 -11 B1- 2050 -19 -17 -10 -15 B1- 2050 0 6 7 -2 B1- 2080 -19 -20 -7 -21 B1- 2080 2 4 10 -3 1T: TIREH; 2M: MARBEREH; 3S: SAZAR; 4B: BAKHTIARI; 3.3. VARIATION OF THE INFLOW TO DEZ AND BAKHTIARI RESERVOIRS AND HYDROPOWER GENERATION UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE The amount of annual inflows to the Bakhtiari and Dez reservoirs and percentage of their changes in the future time horizons under climate change condition, compared to the base period and are presented in table 4. Long-term average of the discharges at the outlet of Bakhtiari and Sazar are 5106.88 and 2938.21 Mm3, respectively. Considering that the Bakhtiari Dam is located at the end point of Bakhtiari basin and Dez is located at the downstream of Tange Panj, the inflow to the Bakhtiari reservoir equals to the Bakhtiari basin’s discharge and the inflow to the Dez reservoir is the total discharges from upstream basins, that equals to 8045.1 Mm3. Based on the results, variation of the inflow to the Bakhtiari reservoir under climate change, simulated to vary between -1.7% (HadCM3-B1- 2050) and -20.8% (ECHAM5-B1-2080). Also the inflow to the Dez reservoir for future time horizons is simulated to decrease by up to 14.3% (ECHAM5-B1-2080) and increase by up to 3.6% (HadCM3-B1-2080). The potential of hydropower generation for base period and future time horizons is calculated by modeling the two reservoirs systems, using the inflows obtained from previous step (table 4). Based on the results the potential of hydropower generation simulated to decrese between -24.1% (ECHAM5-A1B- 2080) and -0.9% (HadCM3-B1-2050) that is in agreement with the reduction of discharges to the Bakhtiari reservoir. On the contrary, the potential of hydropower generation of Dez dam is simulated to slightly increase by up to 2.6% (HadCM3- A1B-2080); while its inflow is projected to decrease for future time horizons. As mentioned above, in case of Dez reservoir, there are some inconsistencies between the changes caused by climate change in discharge and hydropower generation. While, the results for Bakhtiari reservoir are more compatible. The difference between the responses of two reservoirs in terms of 527