Seite - 530 - in Book of Full Papers - Symposium Hydro Engineering

[17] SEMENOV M.A. Development of high-resolution UKCIP02-based climate change scenarios in the UK. Agric For Meteorol, 2007, Nr. 144. [18] STEELE-DUNNE S., LYNCH P., MCGRATH R., SEMMLER T., WANG S., HANAFIN J., NOLAN P. The impacts of climate change on hydrology in Ireland. Journal of Hydrology, 2008, Nr. 356. [19] VAN VLIET M.T.H., FRANSSEN W.H.P., YEARSLEY J.R., LUDWIG F., HADDELAND I. Global river discharge and water temperature under climate change. Global Environ. Change, 2013, Nr. 23. [20] VEZZOLI R., MERCOGLIANO P., PECORA S., ZOLLO A.L., CACCIAMANI C. Hydrological simulation of Po River (North Italy) discharge under climate change scenarios using the RCM COSMO-CLM. Science of the Total Environment, 2015, Nr. 521–522. [21] XU C-Y., SINGH V.P. Review on regional water resources assessment models under stationary and changing climate. Water Resour. Manage., 2004, Nr. 18. 4. SUMMARY Assessment of the impact of climate change on climate and discharge in Dez basin is studied based on the downscaled outputs from two GCMs and three SRES scenarios for three time horizons. The study revealed that the basin experiences a significant temperature rise in mid and late 21st century (up to 4 °C). These changes are accompanied by variations in precipitation that is mostly toward a slight increase in the amount of precipitation. Totally, projections of all the scenarios and GCMs indicate a warmer future and slight to moderate increase in precipitation amount. However, obtained results for precipitation are more anomalous, showing both increase and decrease in the amount of precipitation. To simulate the future discharge at the outlet of each sub-basin under climate change condition, calibrated HBV hydrologic model was enforced with projected temperature and precipitation time-series. Results mostly suggest reduction of annual discharge in the study area. Most significant reduction of annual flow, compared to the base period, reaches up to 33% in two sub-basins located in the upstream of the basin, namely Tireh and Marbereh; while the greatest reductions of the annual flow of Sazar and Bakhtiari sub-basins reach up to 12 and 15%, respectively. In this study the future climate and hydrological conditions were investigated to assess the climate change impact on the potential of hydropower generation in Dez basin. Based on the results, climate change has the potential to significantly alter the potential of hydropower generation in the basin. Results showed reduction of inflow and electricity generation in Bakhtiari reservoir. While, for Dez reservoir, reduction of the inflow accompanied by a slight increase in the generated electricity. This contrasting result that obtained for Dez reservoir were assessed and has been attributed to the small size of the reservoir (2.7 Bm3) compared to the basin’s discharge (8 Bm3), capacity of hydropower plant, different purposes 530