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COMMISSION INTERNATIONALE DES GRANDS BARRAGES ------- VINGT-SIXIÈME CONGRÈS DES GRANDS BARRAGES Autriche, juillet 2018 ------- INVESTIGATION OF THE PROBABILITY OF FAILURE OF A GRAVITY DAM Roger SCHLEGEL DYNARDO GMBH GERMANY Markus GOLDGRUBER DYNARDO AUSTRIA GMBH AUSTRIA Helmut FLEISCHER FEDERAL WATERWAYS ENGINEERING AND RESEARCH INSTITUTE (BAW) GERMANY 1. INTRODUCTION Within the framework of an in-depth review of an old gravity dam in Germany [1], detailed safety assessments are carried out according to the latest state of standardization. Tremendous work has already been done on this topic and especially on this dam. Investigations and results regarding parameter variations and assessment criteria for 3D models of concrete dams have already been published in [11], with the focus on reducing the parameter space and finding 1460