Seite - (000038) - in Evaluating Climate Change Action for Sustainable Development

However, “global public fundingof at leastUS$1 trillionannually is available for (. . .) unsustainable environmental practices, such as subsidies for fossil fuels” (p. 17). In other words, the GEF is ten times out-funded by others, whereas ten timesmore than overall public funding for global environmental public goods is required, and ten timesmore than that is actually spent throughpublic funding on subsidies that destroyour environment.Theparadox is thus revealedasaveridical paradox2: a seeming conflict between impact of GEF versus impact on global environmental trends, that is resolved if competing funding channels are taking into account.3 The questions we pose in this chapter are whether the other comprehensive evaluations provide further evidence for this; whether the historical path that the GEFhas followed toarriveat this situationhasbeenmatchedbyothers,orwhether they have been able to tackle the barriers to impact; and whether their specific routes offer insights intowhatmay be done to increase the chances of success at systemslevel–i.e.whether theyprovideinsights intowhatworks,whenandwhere, forwhomandunderwhatcircumstances toachievesuccess inhumanity’sefforts to address the potentially disastrous consequences of climate changeover time. 2.3 FromEarlyResults to theSlowMaterialization of Impact In theyears leadingup toOPS5 theproject portfolioof interventions supportedby theGEFhasmaturedover time,since its inception in1992, toenableajudgmenton the effectiveness and impact of these interventions. The First and SecondOverall Performance Studies of theGEFwere not able to provide comprehensive assess- mentsof the results and impactof theGEF,due to the fact thatmany interventions had just been completedorwere still on-going at the timeof the evaluations4 (this paragraph based on ICF2005, 21–22). TheThirdOverall PerformanceStudywas expected to be thefirst to report on results and impact, and it had to disappoint its readers on impact. It was able to report on results, as these were mostly at the outcomelevel.Onlonger termimpact theOPS3teamwasconfrontedwith“general unavailability of impact-level results data” (ICF 2005, 21). Several reasons were identifiedwhy thesedatawereunavailable: lackof anoverall resultsmeasurement framework includingbaselines, indicators and targets; lackof efforts at theproject 2As defined by the logician W.V. Quine (1966) in The Ways of Paradox and other essays. NewYork:RandomHouse: a veridical paradox is a statement that seems to contradict itself but maynonetheless be true. 3For anupdate on energy subsidies alone, see IMFWorkingPaper 15/105How largeareGlobal EnergySubsidies?byDavidCoady,LouisSears andBaopingShang, that estimates subsidies and related costs to behigher than$5 trillion in2015. 4This paragraphbasedon ICF, 2005, 21–22. 2 ActiononClimateChange:WhatDoes ItMean andWhereDoes ItLeadTo? 17