Seite - (000076) - in Evaluating Climate Change Action for Sustainable Development

them to increase agricultural productivity (Fig. 4.1).CGIAR itself has long recog- nized theseweaknesses and embarkedona far-reaching reformprocess in 2010. The challenges of demonstrating wide-reaching impact through R4D are compounded by a rapidly growing human population, climate change and other complexities of our time. The human population has almost doubled from 3.8 billion in 1971 to 7.3 billion in 2014 (UN2015b).With an expected extra two to threebillionpeopletofeedover thenext40years, thiswill require targetedresearch efforts to achieve not just growing 70%more food but making 70%more food available on the plate to keep up with rapidly rising demand (WWAP 2012). Climate change is already affecting agriculture inmanydeveloping countries, and theeffectswillbecomeincreasinglychallenginginthefuture.Higher temperatures, shifting disease and pest pressures, and more frequent and severe droughts and floodingwill affect agricultural production andplace increasingpressure onwater andothernatural resources(IPCC2013).Climatechangeimpactsare increasingthe vulnerabilities of populations that are already strugglingwith food insecurity and poverty, even in the relatively conservative scenario of a global 2-degree temper- ature rise (Thornton et al. 2014a). Fig. 4.1 Early change theorists (Found inDuncan Green’s ‘FromPoverty to Power’blog) 4 Pathway to Impact: Supporting andEvaluatingEnablingEnvironments for. . . 57