Seite - (000148) - in Evaluating Climate Change Action for Sustainable Development

world is expected to increase bymore than 47%by 2050, with two-thirds of the new cultivated land coming from converting forests and wetland.2 These figures underscore the importance of examining factors affecting agricultural decisions especiallywithin forested areas, such as forest reserves.3 Usingamixofmethodsthat includesanunbalancedpaneldatasetof670villages locatedwithin ForestReserves ofChiangMai, Thailand, and a study of historical accounts of the evolutionof forest reserve legislation and land rightswithin forest reserves, I examine the following questions: To what extent do policies that encourage cultivation lead to deforestation? Is the forest frontieralways adversely affected bypolicies that encourage cultivationor is it possible to developwin-win strategies?What is thenet impactofpolicies thatareotherwiseexpectedtoincrease agricultural profitability such as secure land rights, output prices and lower trans- portation costs, on the forest frontier? Specifically I do two things: First Imeasure the effect of variables that can be influenced by policy such as transportation costs, population and perceptions of land rights on the agricultural frontier andcultivation intensity. Second, I combine this data with reported land property records to understand and measure how perceptions of land tenure security affect agricultural expansion and intensity. In so doing I examine traditional assumptions about ethnic tribes that inhabit forest reserves inThailand.This analysis thus sheds light on theextent towhichassump- tions about land tenure security and particularly assesses claims that ethnic tribes are significant drivers of deforestationwithin forest reserves.4 There are twomain assumptions that are salient in this study.Thefirst assump- tion is that populationwithin ForestReserves is exogenous to crop choice: during theperiodof this study1986–1996,populationmovement andsizewithin reserved areas of Thailandwas controlled by administrative authorities who did not allow mass migrations to occur.5 Thus although during 1986–1996, the population of ChiangMaiprovincerosebymorethan15%,populationinvillages thatare located within forest reserves (and are the subject of this study) grew at less than 1%per year.The secondassumption is that access tomarkets is exogenous i.e. roadswere notbuilt specifically toprovide theethnic tribes access tomarkets.6,7There isnow substantial evidence that road building in this region took place before the study period and was undertaken primarily to provide military access to remote areas. 2Also seeFischer andHeilig (1997). 3See for exampleAlix-Garcia et al. (2011,2014),Andametal. (2007),Anderssonet al. 2011, and BankandSills (2014). 4See for exampleDelang (2002). 5Personal communication,GershonFeder, TheWorldBank, 2004. 6There are some other agencies of the government and state, that construct roads for special purposes, but their role is relativelyminor. 7Road construction and investments related to improvements in access are undertaken by three agencies inThailand:TheDepartmentofHighwaysoftheMinistryofCommunications, theOffice ofAcceleratedRuralDevelopmentof theMinistryof Interior (ARD)and theDepartmentofLand Administration (DOLA). 132 J. Puri