Seite - (000169) - in Evaluating Climate Change Action for Sustainable Development

Chapter9 MethodologicalApproachof theGEFIEO’s ClimateChangeMitigation Impact Evaluation:AssessingProgress inMarket Change forReductionofCO2Emissions AaronZazueta andNeerajKumarNegi Abstract This chapter presents themethodological approach adopted in the eval- uation of GEF support to market change for climate change mitigation in four emergingmarkets:China, India,MexicoandRussia.Theevaluationwascompleted inOctober 2013. This evaluation included 18 completed and fully evaluatedGEF mitigation projects covering various sectors with opportunities for renewable energy, energy efficiency and methane emission reduction. A theory of change approachwas used to undertake a comparative analysis across projects aiming to teaseoutchangesacrossdiversemarketsormarkets segments indifferentcountries asaconsequenceofGEFsupport.Whileattentionwasgiven to theextent towhich projects resulted in actual greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions, more emphasiswasplacedonunderstanding theextentandformsbywhichGEFprojects contributed to long termmarketchanges resulting inGHGemission reductionsand assessing the added value of GEF support in the context of multiple factors affectingmarket change. Keywords Impact evaluation • Climate change mitigation • Sustainable development •Mixedmethods • Theory of change •Market barriers • Complex systems A.Zazueta (*) IndependentConsultant,NewYork,USA e-mail: a@zazuetagroup.com N.K.Negi GlobalEnvironmentFacility, IndependentEvaluationOffice,Washington,DC,USA e-mail: nnegi1@thegef.org ©TheAuthor(s) 2017 J.I.Uitto et al. (eds.),EvaluatingClimateChangeAction for Sustainable Development,DOI10.1007/978-3-319-43702-6_9 153