Seite - (000201) - in Evaluating Climate Change Action for Sustainable Development

emissions. However in other contexts, differences between recommended values andrealachievementmightbemuchhigher. Insuchcases the level tobeaccounted for the suppresseddemand shouldbe,whenever possible, the level achievedusing the technology or practices introduced, as long as it doesn’t exceed the agreed minimumservice level. Linkingdifferences in services levels to greenhouse gases emissionmay repre- sent the major challenge to include the suppressed demand in climate change mitigation evaluations. This evaluation used a simple linear regressionmodel to assess thesuppresseddemand.Withanimportantworkonthesampling, thesources of variation have beenminimizedwhich allowed to achieve relatively good coef- ficient of determination considering the simplicity of the model. But this model suffer fromstrong limitations andvery lowexternal validity. In the future, consid- ering the important limits of theOLS tomodel the indoor temperature, the devel- opmentof context specificdynamic thermalmodels appears as a relevantoption to accountfor thesuppresseddemand.However,housingconditionsareheterogenious incharacteristics and therefore themodel shouldbeadaptable toawidenumberof houses using parameters that could be easily collected. Alternatively, default factors of energy consumption could be developed to assess the baseline emission levels for different levels of indoor temperature. Applying the suppressed demand also requires important data collection and significantequipment in thecaseof temperaturemonitoring. In thePSHcasestudy, the potential factors of variation between the houses are very important which require averycarefull sampling.This study relyonan important household survey aswellashighlytrainedsurveyors toassess thehousescharacteristicsandselect the samples. In difficult contexts like Afghanistan undertaking long house intrusive surveyscomeswithnumerouschallenges in termsof social acceptationandcost in comparison of the budget for project implementation. To insure a high quality of analysis, fuel consumption measurements had to be done 5 days a week during 8weeks. In theAfghancontext, the fact that amancannot enter in ahousewhena woman is aloneand the security contextofKabulhave stronglyaffected the study. This led tonumerousvisits to the samehousehold togatherdata and in somecases can lead towithdrawing somehouses from the study. Despitea limited immediateclimatechangemitigationpotential, the investment in energy efficient housing is crutial to achieve a low-carbonpathwayand avoid a critical carbon locking considering the time frame of housing investment. Future researchshould focuson thedevelopmentof suppresseddemandmodels that could be adaptable to different contexts. Emission default factors accounting for both emission reductions andavoidedemissionscouldhelpdecision-makingonclimate changemitigation policies by highlighting the significance of the emissions that would result from long-term investments in carbon-intensive technologies. In LDCs, successful climate change mitigation action requires to anticipate the socio-economic development that will lead to investment in carbon-intensive 10 IntegratingAvoidedEmissions inClimateChangeEvaluationPolicies for. . . 185