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Energies 2017,10, 1314
Figure10.Overviewof theusedmethodology including itskeyequations.
Aspreviouslymentionedthere isaclear link indoubling theproductioncapacityof the industry
andpricereductionsasshownby[59]. Threedifferent typesofcostcanbeanalyzedwiththeirown
learning/discountrateperdoublingcapacityof the industry. Thecalculationsof thecostsofgoods
soldandthesalesprice calculations forpredictionsupto2030are showninFigure10. Combining
processbasedmodelingwiththeselearningcurvesareanewapproachtotacklethepricepredictionsof
batteries. Firstlythematerialcost isanalyzedbyLieberman, [59]andareductionof23.5%canbefound
perdoublingproductioncapacity,correspondingtoadiscountfactorof0.765ofmaterialcost.Whilefor
overheadandlaborcost receptively theclassical“six-tenths-rule”and“two-tenths-rule” [59]areused.
Thesix-tenths-rulegivesarelationshipbetweensizeandcostasshownbyfollowingformula [68]:
Cost2
Cost1 =( Scale2
Scale1 )0.6
Thisshowsthat forasizedoublingthe total cost increases to151.4%insteadofdoubling. Thiscan
beachievedbyforexamplebuildinganewplant.Whenthis total cost is redistributedover the two
plants, thecost foreachplant reducedto75.7%of itsoriginal cost. This translate thus inareductionof
24.3%perplantoradiscountrateof0.757 foroverheadcost. Laborcost followsthe two-tenths-rule
meaningthus in thepreviousequation0.6shouldbereplacedby0.2. This results inadiscount factor
of0.574orareductionby42.6%foreachsizedoublingfor laborcosts. Forcompleteness themarket
growthforEVandBEVfrom2015upto2030aresummarized inTable8,baseduponthepredictions
made inSection2.3.
InFigure11thepredictionofsalescostforbatteryII isshown.By2020asignificantpricereduction
is expected (more thanhalf of the total salesprice) due to the rapidgrowthof thebatterymarket,
linkedto theEVsone. Thethresholdof100dollar/kWhwillbereachedbetween2025and2030.
ThesameapproachisusedforbatteryII.Theprice in2015iscalculatedusingthesameproportion
of thesalespricebetweenNMCandsiliconfor theprevioussections.Afterwhichtheprofitmargins
areadded, resulting inasalespriceof317dollar/kWh.Thepredictionof itspriceevolution isshown
inFigure12.One important remark is that siliconbased lithium-ionbatteriesarenotyetonthemarket
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Emerging Technologies for Electric and Hybrid Vehicles
- Titel
- Emerging Technologies for Electric and Hybrid Vehicles
- Herausgeber
- MDPI
- Ort
- Basel
- Datum
- 2017
- Sprache
- englisch
- Lizenz
- CC BY-NC-ND 4.0
- ISBN
- 978-3-03897-191-7
- Abmessungen
- 17.0 x 24.4 cm
- Seiten
- 376
- Schlagwörter
- electric vehicle, plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV), energy sources, energy management strategy, energy-storage system, charging technologies, control algorithms, battery, operating scenario, wireless power transfer (WPT)
- Kategorie
- Technik