Seite - 119 - in Emerging Technologies for Electric and Hybrid Vehicles

Energies 2017,10, 1314 Figure10.Overviewof theusedmethodology including itskeyequations. Aspreviouslymentionedthere isaclear link indoubling theproductioncapacityof the industry andpricereductionsasshownby[59]. Threedifferent typesofcostcanbeanalyzedwiththeirown learning/discountrateperdoublingcapacityof the industry. Thecalculationsof thecostsofgoods soldandthesalesprice calculations forpredictionsupto2030are showninFigure10. Combining processbasedmodelingwiththeselearningcurvesareanewapproachtotacklethepricepredictionsof batteries. Firstlythematerialcost isanalyzedbyLieberman, [59]andareductionof23.5%canbefound perdoublingproductioncapacity,correspondingtoadiscountfactorof0.765ofmaterialcost.Whilefor overheadandlaborcost receptively theclassical“six-tenths-rule”and“two-tenths-rule” [59]areused. Thesix-tenths-rulegivesarelationshipbetweensizeandcostasshownbyfollowingformula [68]: Cost2 Cost1 =( Scale2 Scale1 )0.6 Thisshowsthat forasizedoublingthe total cost increases to151.4%insteadofdoubling. Thiscan beachievedbyforexamplebuildinganewplant.Whenthis total cost is redistributedover the two plants, thecost foreachplant reducedto75.7%of itsoriginal cost. This translate thus inareductionof 24.3%perplantoradiscountrateof0.757 foroverheadcost. Laborcost followsthe two-tenths-rule meaningthus in thepreviousequation0.6shouldbereplacedby0.2. This results inadiscount factor of0.574orareductionby42.6%foreachsizedoublingfor laborcosts. Forcompleteness themarket growthforEVandBEVfrom2015upto2030aresummarized inTable8,baseduponthepredictions made inSection2.3. InFigure11thepredictionofsalescostforbatteryII isshown.By2020asignificantpricereduction is expected (more thanhalf of the total salesprice) due to the rapidgrowthof thebatterymarket, linkedto theEVsone. Thethresholdof100dollar/kWhwillbereachedbetween2025and2030. ThesameapproachisusedforbatteryII.Theprice in2015iscalculatedusingthesameproportion of thesalespricebetweenNMCandsiliconfor theprevioussections.Afterwhichtheprofitmargins areadded, resulting inasalespriceof317dollar/kWh.Thepredictionof itspriceevolution isshown inFigure12.One important remark is that siliconbased lithium-ionbatteriesarenotyetonthemarket 119