Seite - 121 - in Emerging Technologies for Electric and Hybrid Vehicles

Energies 2017,10, 1314 3.7. Comparison This sectionwill compare the price predictions available in literature [69–75] of lithium-ion batteries in 2020, visualized in Figure 13. In this figure it can be seen that the prices are ranked fromlowtohigh,whichalsocoincideswithwhenthepricewaspredicted. TheBostonConsulting Group [71]predicted in2010anaveragepriceof 300dollar/kWh,which is theoldest andhighest price in the listedcomparison. In2012and2015receptivelyRolandandBerger [73,74]andAvicenne [72]predictedapriceof 275and250dollar/kWh. Thepredictions in2016madebyP3Consulting [75] andGTMResearch [69] even shows lower costs of 210and217dollar/kWh. Themost recent predictionmadebyTesla [70]even150dollar/kWhcanbeexpected in2015. Thepredictionsmadeby thisresearchgivesresultof195and131dollar/kWh,whichis in thesamelineas therecentpredictions. Howeversiliconbasedbatteriescanhaveabeneficial impactonthecost it isunlikely that it isalready commerciallyavailable in2020butmost likelyby2025. Figure13.Salespricepredictionof lithium-ionbatteries in2020. 4.Conclusions From the previous analysis it is clear that the electric automotive market is still in its innovators/introduction stage [76]. However in the near future a step towardsmass-adoption/ growth isexpected.Oneof the indicators is toanalyze thepublicationsandpatentsabout theelectric automotive industrywhich is currently booming. BEVs still have a small driving rangehowever a large effortwasdoneby themanufacturers to significantly extend the choiceof electric vehicles during the lastyears. ThemostpopularHEVsare thehigherpricedvehicles inwhichcostplays is less important.Currently themarket isstilldominatedbyclassicalcombustionenginevehicleshowever its dominancewilldecrease from99%in2015 to68%in2030. Themarketofelectricvehicles (HEVsand BEVs)willhaveto increasebyafactorof52,whichmeansahuge investment inbatterymanufacturing willberequiredtocopewith this increase. Thismassproductionwillbeoneof thedrivingforcesof thedecreasingcostofbatterypack. Thetrendsdeducedfromtheroadmapof lithium-ionbatteriesshowthatwithin thenextdecade improvements regardingenergydensity and safety canbe expected. Toanticipate on this trenda innovativeapproach isused inwhichprocess-basedcost calculationsareusedontwotypesofbattery 121