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Energies 2017,10, 1314
3.7. Comparison
This sectionwill compare the price predictions available in literature [69–75] of lithium-ion
batteries in 2020, visualized in Figure 13. In this figure it can be seen that the prices are ranked
fromlowtohigh,whichalsocoincideswithwhenthepricewaspredicted. TheBostonConsulting
Group [71]predicted in2010anaveragepriceof 300dollar/kWh,which is theoldest andhighest
price in the listedcomparison. In2012and2015receptivelyRolandandBerger [73,74]andAvicenne
[72]predictedapriceof 275and250dollar/kWh. Thepredictions in2016madebyP3Consulting
[75] andGTMResearch [69] even shows lower costs of 210and217dollar/kWh. Themost recent
predictionmadebyTesla [70]even150dollar/kWhcanbeexpected in2015. Thepredictionsmadeby
thisresearchgivesresultof195and131dollar/kWh,whichis in thesamelineas therecentpredictions.
Howeversiliconbasedbatteriescanhaveabeneficial impactonthecost it isunlikely that it isalready
commerciallyavailable in2020butmost likelyby2025.
Figure13.Salespricepredictionof lithium-ionbatteries in2020.
4.Conclusions
From the previous analysis it is clear that the electric automotive market is still in its
innovators/introduction stage [76]. However in the near future a step towardsmass-adoption/
growth isexpected.Oneof the indicators is toanalyze thepublicationsandpatentsabout theelectric
automotive industrywhich is currently booming. BEVs still have a small driving rangehowever
a large effortwasdoneby themanufacturers to significantly extend the choiceof electric vehicles
during the lastyears. ThemostpopularHEVsare thehigherpricedvehicles inwhichcostplays is less
important.Currently themarket isstilldominatedbyclassicalcombustionenginevehicleshowever its
dominancewilldecrease from99%in2015 to68%in2030. Themarketofelectricvehicles (HEVsand
BEVs)willhaveto increasebyafactorof52,whichmeansahuge investment inbatterymanufacturing
willberequiredtocopewith this increase. Thismassproductionwillbeoneof thedrivingforcesof
thedecreasingcostofbatterypack.
Thetrendsdeducedfromtheroadmapof lithium-ionbatteriesshowthatwithin thenextdecade
improvements regardingenergydensity and safety canbe expected. Toanticipate on this trenda
innovativeapproach isused inwhichprocess-basedcost calculationsareusedontwotypesofbattery
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Emerging Technologies for Electric and Hybrid Vehicles
- Titel
- Emerging Technologies for Electric and Hybrid Vehicles
- Herausgeber
- MDPI
- Ort
- Basel
- Datum
- 2017
- Sprache
- englisch
- Lizenz
- CC BY-NC-ND 4.0
- ISBN
- 978-3-03897-191-7
- Abmessungen
- 17.0 x 24.4 cm
- Seiten
- 376
- Schlagwörter
- electric vehicle, plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV), energy sources, energy management strategy, energy-storage system, charging technologies, control algorithms, battery, operating scenario, wireless power transfer (WPT)
- Kategorie
- Technik