Page - (000623) - in Autonomes Fahren - Technische, rechtliche und gesellschaftliche Aspekte
Image of the Page - (000623) -
Text of the Page - (000623) -
Regulation and the Risk of
Inaction602
federal regime offers through self-certification to specific standards is diminished by the
recalls and lawsuits that can arise years or even decades after a vehicle has been sold.
Indeed, unlike current federal motor vehicle safety standards, a safety case could con-
template the entire product lifecycle. A developer might describe not only the steps it had
taken to ensure reasonable safety at the time of sale but also the steps it would continue to
take as it learned more about performance in the field.
27.4 Simplify the Problem
27.4.1 Limit the Duration of Risk
The potential longevity of any motor vehicle – the “average” age of cars in the United
States is more than eleven years [15] – can create uncertainty for its manufacturers [21] and
safety concerns for the public [26]. In 2013, Chrysler reluctantly recalled some Jeeps that
were twenty years old [9], [13]. More generally, newer vehicles tend to be safer than older
vehicles; “improvements made after the model year 2000 fleet prevented the crashes of
700,000 vehicles; prevented or mitigated the injuries of 1 million occupants; and saved
2,000 lives in the 2008 calendar year alone” [8].
This uncertainty may be particularly great in the case of automated vehicles [21]. Even
extensive testing may not capture the full range of scenarios that these vehicles could face.
Manufacturers may have difficulty predicting “the eventual response of judges, juries,
regulators, consumers, and the public at large to incidents that will inevitably occur” [28].
Regulators may be “concerned that, first, isolated incidents involving these products will
create feelings of helplessness and panic that unjustifiably stymie their wider adoption and
that, second, these early products will still be around years later when they are much less
safe than whatever has become state of the art” [26].
A promising response to these challenges is a lifecycle approach to vehicle design that
seeks to limit the duration of risk. For the private sector, this could entail over-the-air up-
dates, end-user license agreements, leasing arrangements, and a variety of other technical
and legal tools to enable manufacturers to update or even forcibly retire systems in which
they no longer have confidence [21]. For the public sector, this could mean requiring com-
panies to document a strategy and a capacity for monitoring the long-term safety of their
systems. Such documentation could be a key part of the safety case introduced above.
27.4.2 Exclude the Extreme
The aphorism that “the perfect is the enemy of the good” [33] is instructive for vehicle
automation. Demanding perfection may impede the development or deployment of systems
that, while not perfect, nonetheless represent a significant improvement over conventional
vehicles. Excessive design demands, for example, might preclude an automated vehicle
Autonomes Fahren
Technische, rechtliche und gesellschaftliche Aspekte
Gefördert durch die Daimler und Benz Stiftung