Page - (000147) - in Evaluating Climate Change Action for Sustainable Development

Chapter8 UsingMixedMethods toAssessTrade-Offs BetweenAgriculturalDecisions andDeforestation JyotsnaPuri Abstract Policies that targetpoverty reductionareoftenatoddswithenvironmen- talsustainability.Assessingmagnitudesof trade-offsbetweenimprovedlivelihoods on one side, and forest cover on the other, is important for designing win-win developmentpolicies thatmayhelp tomitigateclimatechange. Iuseamixofpanel data for 670 villages over a 10 year period, and combine it with historical land records and grey literature, to understand the drivers of deforestation within reserved forestsofThailand–an areawhere smallholder ethnic tribes are located. Given that reserved forests are the last bastions of forests in Thailand, examining what drives land clearingwithin these areas is important. I combine econometric findings with qualitative reports to infer that (i) it is important to measure the differential effects of policies on different crops, agricultural intensity and the agricultural frontier; and (ii) within forest reserves, policies that encourage culti- vation overallmay not be detrimental to forest cover after all. This has important implications for evaluators andpolicymakers. Keywords Trade-offs • Poverty • Forests •Agriculture • Panel data • Thailand • Environment •Sustainability •Deforestation •Property rights •Evaluation 8.1 Background Other than theocean, standingforestsconstitute themost importantcarbonsinks in the world. Yet forests are being threatened and agricultural expansion is widely believed to be themain reason for deforestation in developing countries.1A study conducted by FAO (2001) of a stratified random sample of the world’s tropical forestsfinds that 73%of theworld’s forests arebeingconverted tonon-forest land due to agriculture. Barbier (2004) reports that cultivated area in the developing J. Puri (*) International Initiative for ImpactEvaluation (3ie),NewDelhi, India e-mail: jpuri@3ieimpact.org 1Barbier (2004) andLambin et al. (2003). ©TheAuthor(s) 2017 J.I.Uitto et al. (eds.),EvaluatingClimateChangeAction for Sustainable Development,DOI10.1007/978-3-319-43702-6_8 131