Page - (000160) - in Evaluating Climate Change Action for Sustainable Development

Using this dataset and the relationships hypothesized above, I estimate two estimationmodels for total village agricultural area and cultivation intensity:29 LogAgriculturalAreað Þjit¼ai0þai1Log Populationð Þjt þ ai2Log Travel time tomarketð Þjtþai3 Wateravailabilitydummyð Þjit þ ai4 Acid soil dummyð Þjitþai5 Property rightsdummyð Þjt þ ai6 BAACusedummyð Þþai7 Proportionof adult populationð Þjtai7Time trend þ u*jiþεjit Intensityof cultivationjit¼ai0þai1Log Populationð Þjt þ ai2Log Travel time tomarketð Þjtþai3 Wateravailabilitydummyð Þjit þ ai4 Acid soil dummyð Þjitþai5 Property rightsdummyð Þjt þ ai6 BAACusedummyð Þþai7 Proportionof adult populationð Þjtai7Time trend þ u*jiþεjit 8.5 Results Results are analyzed in twoways. First, I examine the effect of different crops on total agricultural area. Tables 8.5 and 8.6 discuss results from these equations. Second, I examine howpolicy variables affect overall agricultural area and inten- sity of cultivation. Iuse randomeffectsmodels inTables8.6and8.7, toestimate theeffectof these variables on agricultural area and intensity of cultivation: Table8.6showsthatan increase invillageagricultural landisassociatedwithan increase in areadevoted topaddy rice (coefficient¼0.46; z¼7.8)andupland rice (coefficient¼ 0.21; z¼2.36). On the other hand, an increase in area devoted to soybean is not: Villages that grow Soybean are likely to be those that have little agricultural land,andcanonlycultivate intensively.Speakingwithagriculturalists, this isexpected:Soybeanisaninput intensivecashcropandisusuallycultivatedon landthat isfertilizerrichandinputrich.Table8.7showsthatanincreasein intensity of cultivation is associatedwith an increase in area devoted to Soybean (0.01399; z¼3.76) and Paddy rice (0.0037; z¼1.95). Upland rice area does not contribute significantly to increasing cultivation intensity (measured by the number of crops grown on a plot of land in a year). This too is expected. Observational data and conversationswith folksat theuniversity reveal thatupland rice isgrownonforest frontiers, and typically on land with low fertility that is vulnerable to erosion. 29Where u ji is distributed normally and is the unobserved influence of the village on repeated observations.εjit is theunobservederror termalsodistributednormallywithmean0andvariance σ2ε. For each of these equations, to account forBAACcredit use being endogenous, I estimate a first stage random effects equation to get the predicted value for BAAC credit use. To model BAAC credit use, for each of the equations above, I estimate the following random effects equation, which includes all exogenous variables in the system, including the three identifying instruments. 144 J. Puri