Page - (000176) - in Evaluating Climate Change Action for Sustainable Development

capacities; and, testing implementation strategies forbehavior change.Through its support tooneormoreof these realms,GEFsupportaims tobringaboutconditions and behavior that if broadly adopted can result in transformations in the long run. The framework identifies the followingaspathways for broader adoption: sustain- ability,mainstreaming, replication,upscalingandmarketchange.Dependingonthe intervention,oneormoreof thesepathwayscanbeatplay.Thuswhilesomecarbon emission reductioncan takeplaceover the short run, emission reductionat scale is assumed to take place gradually over a longer period of time as behavior changes andsystems transform. It isalsoassumed that theextentand trajectoryofchange is likely to be affected bymultiple factors, someofwhichmayhave been addressed by the project,while othersmaynot havebeen envisionedduringproject prepara- tion and/or addressed through project design. In time, the spread of tested approaches andbehavior that reduceenvironmental stress (carbonemission reduc- tions) result in changes leading to improved environmental status and human wellbeing.This process is assumed to beunpredictable, non-linearand affected by multiple confounding factors, thus requiring constant attention and adaptation to emergingconditions(ZazuetaandGarcia2014). IncaseofGEFsupport forclimate changemitigation activities the expected long term impact includes reduction in GHGemissions throughthe transformationof thestructureandfunctionof targeted markets (Fig. 9.1). TheTOC frameworkwas used to develop theory of change for specific project clusters that were covered in the evaluation. The specific theories relevant to the projects were used in this evaluation to develop instruments that would ensure comparability of the informationgathered. Informationgatheredon the specificcontributionsofGEFsupport toconditions (knowledge and information, institutional capacities and effective implementation strategies) to reduce CO2 emissions as well as expected impact pathways, along with information on the rival hypothesis on observed changes, formed a basis to assessGEFcontributions to observed changes in the targetedmarkets. 9.5 Understanding theSystemTargetedby the Intervention The definition of the systemwhich the intervention seeks to change has a strong bearing on the factors that the evaluationwill consider in its analysis.While the climate change phenomena take place at different scales including local, national, regionalandglobal, todetermine thespecificevaluationquestions thatneededtobe asked, in addition to the underlying project’s theory of change for the given intervention, the evaluation also focused on understanding the system that the GEF supported activity was trying to influence, including system boundaries, systemcomponents, interactionsamongcomponentsandemergentpropertieschar- acteristic of each system (Holling 2001; W€orlen and Consult n.d.). While 160 A.Zazueta andN.K.Negi