Page - (000180) - in Evaluating Climate Change Action for Sustainable Development

9.7 AssessingMarketChange More important than thecarbonemission reductions is theextent towhichprojects contributed to change that in the long term will result in the needed market, technological and behavioral transformations. To bring about these changes, the projects covered through the evaluation addressed barriers related to different sectors andmarkets.Theseprojectspromoted technologiesand removalofbarriers tomarkets/technologies onwind energy, biomass energy,methane, hydro power, solarenergy, industrialefficiency,efficient lighting,buildingefficiency,and, trans- portation. The instruments developed for the evaluation tracked barriers and changes in these markets/technologies in four spheres: Consumers/users; supply chain and infrastructure; financing; and, policy environment.Based on applicabil- ity, market barriers considered in the analysis for a sphere included: information gaponpromoted technologyorapproaches, lackof interest ormotivation toadopt, lackofrelevantexpertise, lackofaccess torelevantmitigationtechnologies, lackof cost effectiveness, and lack of a viable model. The instrument developed for analysis also captured the intensitywithwhich the given project targeted each of the barriers prevalent in the given market, the specific activities that the GEF implemented to target each barrier, efforts by other actors in addressing the given barrier, and theextent towhich thechangeevident in thestatusof thebarrier could be attributed to the given project. Information on these indicators was gathered through desk review of available information, field verification, interviews and information from independent sources. Of the18projectscoveredthroughtheevaluation, for14projectsmarketchange wasobserved.Theobservedchanges in the targetedmarketsmaybeclassified into fourcategories:adoptionofhigherqualityproduct/technologyin themarket (8pro- jects); reduction of production/technology cost (7 projects); availability of more and/or better suppliers (12 projects); and greater demand for promoted product/ technology(7projects).Generally,achievementof improvement inavailabilityand quality of suppliers and improvements in products were linked to each other and oftendue toa requirement tomeetapredeterminedquality standardor toachievea certification. 9.8 EstablishingCausality andAccounting forAlternative Hypothesis Determining the causal variables was more demanding than determining the observed change.The log frames andother logicmodels that articulate a project’s theoryofchange identify itsexpectedeffects.The theoriesalsosketch theexpected pathways through which the project outputs and outcomes would lead to its expected long term impacts.While a project’s theory of change provides a useful tool to understand its rationale, there are twomain limitations in relyingon it as a 164 A.Zazueta andN.K.Negi