Page - (000016) - in Disrupted Development and the Future of Inequality in the Age of Automation

4 L. SCHLOGL AND A. SUMNER In Part II we focus on the emergence of automation and the driv- ers, implications for economic development and issues for developing countries. Chapter 4 discusses the trends in technology and discusses definitions and determinants of automation. Chapter 5 discusses the effect of automation on economic development and employment in developing countries from a theoretical perspective. Further, it analyzes existing empirical forecasts of automatability and global patterns. Chapter 6 considers the public policy responses proposed. Finally, Chapter 7 con- cludes and highlights areas for further research in terms of employment and economic development strategies in developing countries. note 1. Heintz (2009) examines employment growth and the productivity growth rate in 35 countries between 1961 and 2008, and finds that increases in the productivity growth rate slow down the rate of employment growth, and that this pattern is getting stronger over time. In the 1960s, a one per- centage point increase in the growth rate of productivity reduced employ- ment growth by just 0.07 percentage points. However, in the 2000s, that same one percentage point increase in the growth rate of productiv- ity reduced employment growth by a substantial 0.54 percentage point. Several possible explanations are as follows: (i) it could be that increases in productivity over time are reducing the employment elasticity of growth; (ii) it could be that the proportion of wage labor is increasing; or (iii) it could be that increases in real wages, employers’ social contributions, or strengthening labor institutions are raising unit labor costs and dampen- ing employment creation, though this is ambiguous in empirical studies. A meta-review of 150 studies of labor institutions (Betcherman, 2012) covering minimum wages, employment protection regulation, unions and collective bargaining, and mandated benefits) with an emphasis on studies in developing countries, found that in most cases, effects are either modest or work in both directions in terms of productivity. references Acemoglu, D., & Restrepo, P. (2017). Robots and jobs: Evidence from US labor markets (NBER Working Paper Series No. 23285). Cambridge, MA: NBER. Retrieved from http://www.nber.org/papers/w23285. ADB (Asian Development Bank). (2018). Asian development outlook 2018: How technology affects jobs. Manila: ADB.