Page - (000033) - in Disrupted Development and the Future of Inequality in the Age of Automation

3 DEINDUSTRIALIZATION AND TERTIARIZATION IN THE DEVELOPING … 23 We use the data here to give a broad brush of ST in the developing world since the 1960s and the identification—or proof of concept—of new modes of ST in terms of the identification of deindustrialization and tertiarization in some parts of the developing world since around 2000. Figures 3.1–3.6 illustrate ST in the developing world cover in turn, sec- toral ST, factoral ST, and integrative ST. First, sectoral ST: we are interested in the extent and trajectory of ST —in terms of sectoral allocations of GDP, and employment and exports. How one reacts to such graphs depends, in part, on assump- tions made about privileging manufacturing in terms of productivity and ϬϭϬϮϬϯϬϰϬϱϬϲϬϳϬ ϴϬ Ϭ ϭϬϬϬ ϮϬϬϬ ϯϬϬϬ ϰϬϬϬ ϱϬϬϬ ŐƌŝĐƵůƚƵƌĞƐŚĂƌĞ;йͿ ^^ ͕ s ^^ ͕ ŵƉ > ͕ ŵƉ> ͕ s ͕ s ͕ ŵƉ^ ͕ s ^ ͕ ŵƉ' W ƉĞƌ ĐĂƉŝƚĂ;ϮϬϬϱ ĐŽŶƐƚĂŶƚ ƉƌŝĐĞ͕ ϮϬϬϱ ĐŽŶƐƚĂŶƚ ΨͿ ϬϱϭϬϭϱϮϬϮϱϯϬϯϱ ϰϬ Ϭ ϭϬϬϬ ϮϬϬϬ ϯϬϬϬ ϰϬϬϬ ϱϬϬϬ DĂŶƵĨĂĐƚƵƌŝŶŐƐŚĂƌĞ;йͿ ' W ƉĞƌ ĐĂƉŝƚĂ ;ϮϬϬϱ ĐŽŶƐƚĂŶƚ ƉƌŝĐĞ͕ ϮϬϬϱ ĐŽŶƐƚĂŶƚ ΨͿ^^ ͕ ŵƉ ͕ ŵƉ > ͕ s > ͕ ŵƉ ͕ s ^ ͕ ŵƉ^ ͕ s ^^ ͕ s ϬϱϭϬϭϱϮϬϮϱϯϬϯϱϰϬ Ϭ ϭϬϬϬ ϮϬϬϬ ϯϬϬϬ ϰϬϬϬ ϱϬϬϬ EŽŶ ŵĂŶƵĨĂĐƚƵƌŝŶŐ ŝŶĚƵƐƚƌLJ ƐŚĂƌĞ;йͿ ' W ƉĞƌ ĐĂƉŝƚĂ ;ϮϬϬϱ ĐŽŶƐƚĂŶƚ ƉƌŝĐĞ͕ ϮϬϬϱ ĐŽŶƐƚĂŶƚ ΨͿ^^ ͕ ŵƉ ^^ ͕ s > ͕ ŵƉ> ͕ s ͕ s ͕ ŵƉ^ ͕ s ^ ͕ ŵƉ ϬϭϬϮϬϯϬϰϬϱϬϲϬϳϬ Ϭ ϭϬϬϬ ϮϬϬϬ ϯϬϬϬ ϰϬϬϬ ϱϬϬϬ ^ĞƌǀŝĐĞƐƐŚĂƌĞ;йͿ ' W ƉĞƌ ĐĂƉŝƚĂ ;ϮϬϬϱ ĐŽŶƐƚĂŶƚ ƉƌŝĐĞ͕ ϮϬϬϱ ĐŽŶƐƚĂŶƚ ΨͿ > ͕ s > ͕ ŵƉ^^ ͕ s ^^ ͕ ŵƉ^ ͕ s ^ ͕ ŵƉ ͕ s ͕ ŵƉ Fig. 3.1 GDP and employment shares by region, 1960–present. Source Author’s calculation based on Timmer et al. [2015]