Page - (000035) - in Disrupted Development and the Future of Inequality in the Age of Automation

3 DEINDUSTRIALIZATION AND TERTIARIZATION IN THE DEVELOPING … 25 that capital intensity is higher relative to other regions, and consequen- tially that growth is capital accumulation-led rather than labor produc- tivity-led. Shares in the service sector in East Asia also saw a substantial rise over the period. The regional manufacturing shares for regions in Fig. 3.1 are consistent with what has been “premature deindustrial- ization” (a term credited to UNCTAD, 2003 and used by many oth- ers), in that developing countries have reached “peak manufacturing” ͲϮϬϬϮϬϰϬϲϬϴϬ ϭϬϬϭϮϬ ϭϵϲϭ ϭϵϳϭ ϭϵϴϭ ϭϵϵϭ ϮϬϬϭ ϮϬϭϭ,ƵŵĂŶ ĂƉŝƚĂů ^ƚŽĐŬ>ĂďŽƵƌWŚLJƐŝĐĂů ĐĂƉŝƚĂů ƐƚŽĐŬ ĂƐƚ ƐŝĂ ;ϭϵϲϭͲϮϬϭϰͿ;йͿ ϬϮϬϰϬϲϬϴϬϭϬϬ ϭϮϬ ϭϵϲϭ ϭϵϳϭ ϭϵϴϭ ϭϵϵϭ ϮϬϬϭ ϮϬϭϭ,ƵŵĂŶ ĂƉŝƚĂů ^ƚŽĐŬ>ĂďŽƵƌWŚLJƐŝĐĂů ĐĂƉŝƚĂů ƐƚŽĐŬ ^ŽƵƚŚ ƐŝĂ ;ϭϵϲϭͲϮϬϭϰͿ;йͿ ͲϭϬϬͲϱϬϬϱϬϭϬϬ ϭϱϬϮϬϬϭϵϲϭ ϭϵϳϭ ϭϵϴϭ ϭϵϵϭ ϮϬϬϭ ϮϬϭϭ,ƵŵĂŶ ĂƉŝƚĂů ^ƚŽĐŬ>ĂďŽƵƌWŚLJƐŝĐĂů ĐĂƉŝƚĂů ƐƚŽĐŬ >ĂƟŶ ŵĞƌŝĐĂ Θ ĂƌŝďďĞĂŶ ;ϭϵϲϭͲϮϬϭϰͿ;йͿ ͲϮϱϬͲϮϬϬͲϭϱϬͲϭϬϬͲϱϬϬϱϬϭϬϬϭϱϬϮϬϬϮϱϬ ϯϬϬϯϱϬϭϵϲϭ ϭϵϳϭ ϭϵϴϭ ϭϵϵϭ ϮϬϬϭ ϮϬϭϭ,ƵŵĂŶ ĂƉŝƚĂů ^ƚŽĐŬ>ĂďŽƵƌWŚLJƐŝĐĂů ĐĂƉŝƚĂů ƐƚŽĐŬ ^Ƶď ^ĂŚĂƌĂŶ ĨƌŝĐĂ ;ϭϵϲϭͲϮϬϭϰͿ;йͿ Fig. 3.3 Growth decomposition by factor, by region, 1970–present (change in growth = 100). Source Author’s calculation based on Timmer et al. [2015]