Page - (000036) - in Disrupted Development and the Future of Inequality in the Age of Automation

26 L. SCHLOGL AND A. SUMNER in employment and value-added shares at a much earlier point in per cap- ita income than the advanced nations.2 Kaldor in his detailed empirical investigation on the relationship between manufacturing and growth concluded the UK was experiencing “premature maturity.” This con- cept referred to an experience whereby manufacturing has “exhausted its growth potential before attaining particularly high levels of productivity or of average per capita income” (Kaldor 1978 [1966], p. 102). In con- trast to manufacturing shares, service shares of GDP and employment are on an upward trend in general, particularly so in South Asia with a caveat that South Asia is represented by India alone in this estimation.3 Deindustrialization and tertiarization raise questions about the impor- tance or otherwise of manufacturing as the driver of growth. In short, is manufacturing special as Kaldor outlined? Figure 3.2 estimates the sectoral sources of growth by region. These estimates are based on the method of Anand, Cheng, Rehman, and Zhang (2014) and show the decomposition of growth by sector (and factor–discussed next). The total ϬϱϬϬϭϬϬϬϭϱϬϬϮϬϬϬϮϱϬϬϯϬϬϬϯϱϬϬ ϰϬϬϬ Ϭ ϭϬϬϬ ϮϬϬϬ ϯϬϬϬ ϰϬϬϬ ϱϬϬϬ' W ƉĞƌ ĐĂƉŝƚĂ ;ϮϬϬϱ ĐŽŶƐƚĂŶƚ ƉƌŝĐĞ͕ ϮϬϬϱ h^ ΨͿsĂůƵĞ ŐƌŝĐƵůƚƵƌĞ^ > ^^ ϬϮϬϬϬϰϬϬϬϲϬϬϬϴϬϬϬϭϬϬϬϬϭϮϬϬϬϭϰϬϬϬϭϲϬϬϬϭϴϬϬϬ Ϭ ϭϬϬϬ ϮϬϬϬ ϯϬϬϬ ϰϬϬϬ ϱϬϬϬ' W ƉĞƌ ĐĂƉŝƚĂ ;ϮϬϬϱ ĐŽŶƐƚĂŶƚ ƉƌŝĐĞ͕ ϮϬϬϱ h^ ΨͿsĂůƵĞ DĂŶƵĨĂĐƚƵƌŝŶŐ^ > ^^ ϬϱϬϬϬϭϬϬϬϬϭϱϬϬϬϮϬϬϬϬϮϱϬϬϬϯϬϬϬϬ ϯϱϬϬϬ Ϭ ϭϬϬϬ ϮϬϬϬ ϯϬϬϬ ϰϬϬϬ ϱϬϬϬ' W ƉĞƌ ĐĂƉŝƚĂ ;ϮϬϬϱ ĐŽŶƐƚĂŶƚ ƉƌŝĐĞ͕ ϮϬϬϱ h^ ΨͿsĂůƵĞ EŽŶͲDĂŶƵĨĂĐƚƵƌŝŶŐ ŝŶĚƵƐƚƌLJ^ > ^^ ϬϮϬϬϬϰϬϬϬϲϬϬϬϴϬϬϬϭϬϬϬϬϭϮϬϬϬϭϰϬϬϬϭϲϬϬϬ Ϭ ϭϬϬϬ ϮϬϬϬ ϯϬϬϬ ϰϬϬϬ ϱϬϬϬ' W ƉĞƌ ĐĂƉŝƚĂ ;ϮϬϬϱ ĐŽŶƐƚĂŶƚ ƉƌŝĐĞ͕ ϮϬϬϱ h^ ΨͿsĂůƵĞ ^ĞƌǀŝĐĞƐ^ > ^^ Fig. 3.4 Labor productivity versus GDP per capita, by region, 1960–present. Source Author’s calculation based on Timmer et al. [2015]