Page - (000078) - in Disrupted Development and the Future of Inequality in the Age of Automation

5 AUTOMATION AND STRUCTURAL TRANSFORMATION … 71 allows any inference about country-level developments over time, an increase in service-sector employment would suggest itself as the only future-proof employment growth model. In HICs, it would suggest structural change away from industrial work and in developing countries away from agriculture. What does this mean for the future of economic development and structural transformation? Holding all else constant, sectoral differences in the replaceability of labor will sustain a pressure for both further dein- dustrialization and deagriculturalization. This is not a new phenom- enon: in fact, the cross-country pattern of sectoral employment shares shown earlier in Fig. 5.4 and reproduced in Fig. 5.6 to compare 1991 6HUYLFH VHFWRU 6HUYLFH VHFWRU ,QGXVWU\ ,QGXVWU\ $JULFXOWXUH $JULFXOWXUH Ϭ ϮϱϱϬϳϱ ϭϬϬ ΨϬ ΨϮϬ͕ϬϬϬ ΨϰϬ͕ϬϬϬ ΨϲϬ͕ϬϬϬ ΨϴϬ͕ϬϬϬй 'E/ ƉĞƌ ĐĂƉŝƚĂ ;ĐƵƌƌĞŶƚ h^ Ϳ Fig. 5.6 Economic development and sectoral employment shares across coun- tries (fitted lines): 1991 and 2014. Source Authors’ estimates based on World Bank [2018] data