Page - 19 - in Friedensgutachten 2020 - Im Schatten der Pandemie: letzte Chance für Europa

↘ PROTEST MOVEMENTS: FROM REPRESSION TO NEW UNREST? Mass protest movements are a global phenomenon. Anti-regime protests that target entire political systems are of immediate concern to international politics, whether they occur in democracies (e.g. Bolivia, Indonesia) or autocracies (e.g. Algeria, Sudan). The political upheavals caused by these protests can lead to the construction of more free and just societies, but also to political instability or violence. This is particularly the case when governments and the security apparatus react with disproportionate repressive means. During and above all after mass protests, the German government should take a proactive role in mediation and dialogue. The state-imposed restrictions of the coronavirus pandemic and their social and economic consequences are likely to limit the number and intensity of protest movements in the short-term. Already in March 2020, a number of movements had moved from the streets to the internet or balconies (e.g. the anti-monarchy protests in Spain). It remains to be seen what influence this kind of protest can exercise on politics. As the pandemic drags on, however, we may see mass street protests against the restrictions that have been enacted and their economic and social consequences. The situation is especially dramatic wherever people are forced to coexist in close quarters, such as in refugee camps, slums, and prisons. A further consequence of the pandemic are curtailments in the fundamental rights of citi- zens that are being imposed to combat the spread of the virus. While these infringements are assumed to be temporary in stable democracies, they create an opportunity for other governments to systematically strengthen their own hold on power at the expense of demo- cratic rights and individual liberties. Significant curtailments of democratic rights should therefore be expected worldwide, and these could continue for years. People are likely to rise up against such curtailments when governments prove unable to protect them from the serious consequences of the virus. The same is true of the economic disruption that is likely to hit the most vulnerable population groups the hardest. Particularly in fragile states, mass protests and even the collapse of political systems are conceivable. It is concerning that the German government currently has no strategic guidelines for how to react to mass move- ments and the political turmoil they generate. ↘ BETWEEN CYBERPEACE AND CYBERWAR: ARMS DYNAMICS Globally, military expenditure rose continually during 2019. In Germany, too, spending on arms rose by twelve percent to 47.9 billion euros. Over the same period, the Federal Govern- ment approved record arms exports worth more than eight billion euros – some to coun- tries with very poor human rights records or which are actively involved in wars. At the same time, steps were taken to Europeanize arms production. There is a danger that this may lead to German arms export regulations being circumvented. Germany should mediate proactively and encourage dialo- gue between protest movements and govern - ments peace report / 2020 19