Page - 7 - in options, Volume winter 2014/2015

research news 7winter 2014/2015 + optionswww.iiasa.ac.at iiasa research In Eastern Europe, climate change is expected to impact precipitation levels, with potential increases in both droughts and floods. But  because these projections are very uncertain, particularly in the short term, the European Union is encouraging countries to make risk management policies that are robust enough to reduce the risks of both increasingly dry and wet conditions. In a new study published in the journal Regional Environmental Change, IIASA Risk, Policy and Vulnerability Program Director Joanne Bayer and colleagues worked with stakeholders in Poland to untangle the web of EU climate policy guidelines and their implications for flood and drought policy in the country. The study found four major challenges with mainstreaming climate change into flood and drought policy. “The first challenge is the uncertainty,” says Bayer, “Nobody can tell policymakers with certainty if precipitation levels will go up or down in the next 10 to 15 years, but that is the time period that they have to plan for.” When trying to implement robust solutions that could be helpful in both drought and flood situations, Bayer says, soft policy measures suggested by the EU are not necessarily effective, and some are extremely costly. A third problem is the complicated nature of the EU guidelines, which are often unclear and occasionally contradictory. Finally, the researchers say, implementing policies is extremely challenging in Poland, with a large number of institutions being involved in decision making on flood and drought risk, which leads to confusion about boundaries and responsibilities. The researchers say that addressing these challenges could help lead to improved guidelines. “We can talk about mainstreaming all we want, but to provide effective policy guidance, we need to put ourselves in the shoes of someone trying to make flood and drought policy in Poland,” says Bayer. KL Further info Linnerooth-Bayer J, Dubel A, Sendzimir J, Hochrainer-Stigler S. Challenges for mainstreaming climate change into EU flood and drought policy: Water retention measures in the Warta River Basin, Poland. Regional Environmental Change (Published online 19 September 2014) [doi:10.1007/s10113-014-0643-7]. Joanne Bayer bayer@iiasa.ac.at Peer punishment can work surprisingly well as a strategy to build cooperation, according to a study led by IIASA researcher Karl Sigmund. The study, published in the journal Experimental Economics, compared the effectiveness of two punishment strategies: peer punishment and institutional punishment. “In most aspects of everyday life, the task of punishing exploiters has been taken over by institutions,” says Sigmund. “In  fact in developed societies in particular, peer punishment is not only unusual, but also forbidden.” The study used an experimental game approach to explore the development of institutional punishment, involving 18 groups of volunteers who played a game for multiple rounds. The game allowed each player to choose whether to cooperate with others, and also allowed the group to decide on a punishment strategy for those who did not cooperate. After each round, the group could decide whether to change their punishment strategy, based on previous outcomes. The researchers predicted that institutional punishment would develop naturally as the game proceeded. However in practice, they found that players entrusted punishment to a costly institution only if it punished non-cooperators as well as players refusing to contribute to its upkeep. In fact, over the 50 rounds of the game, the researchers found that the players chose peer punishment a majority of the time. Experimental game theory studies such as this one can provide unique insights into human behavior, which often turns out to be more complex than standard theory assumes, say the researchers. KL Further info Zhang B, Li C, De Silva H, Bednarik P, Sigmund K (2014). The  evolution of sanctioning institutions: An experimental approach to the social contract. Experimental Economics 17(2):285–303 [doi:10.1007/s10683-013-9367-7]. Karl Sigmund ksigmund@iiasa.ac.at Making climate change policy mainstream The game of life