Page - 8 - in options, Volume summer 2015

science into policy 8 options + summer 2015 iiasa research Taking the temperature of the climate talks IIASA scientists Keywan Riahi and Joeri  Rogelj give Earth’s energy systems an  annual checkup for the Emissions Gap Reports, which analyze progress on global  climate protection. S ince 2010, the global climate has had its vital signs tested every year in the Emissions Gap Reports of the United  Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), which serve as a complement to the detailed periodic reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The 2009 Copenhagen Accord recognized “the scientific view” that deep cuts in greenhouse gas emissions are required to keep global temperature rise to below 2°C this century. The accord was based on voluntary reductions. Some nations agreed with the 2°C limit, some said greater stringency was needed, and some thought the implied emission reductions were unfair. However,  most agreed that, for now, the 2°C limit provided a useful goal and a basis for benchmarking. Post-Copenhagen, UNEP began compiling and publishing annual Emissions Gap Reports to assess whether country pledges were on track to limiting temperature increase to 2°C. UNEP, in  five reports to date, documented that the gap, though large, can be bridged through urgent collective action to mitigate climate change and pursue wider development goals. The 2014 Report showed, for instance, a gap of approximately 8–10 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (GtCO2e) in global emissions in 2020, if countries implemented current pledges. IIASA researchers, Keywan Riahi and Joeri Rogelj have been key shapers of the Gap Report, and helped devise the format. “We  look at what the gap in 2020 or 2030 will be between emission levels consistent with achieving the 2°C limit and the emission levels expected if country commitments are met,” says  Riahi, IIASA Energy Program director. IIASA models, in particular the MESSAGE Integrated Assessment Modeling framework, have underpinned the UNEP assessments, and IIASA energy researchers, with partners worldwide, have coordinated many of the underlying international model  comparisons. Rogelj and Energy Program Deputy Director Volker Krey are also participating in the Structured Expert Dialogue, which reports directly to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate  Change (UNFCCC) on the adequacy of the 2°C goal. UNFCCC countries fully accept UNEP’s yearly stocktaking. “The  Gap Report is vital to policymakers as among the most highly cited documents in country interventions in the international climate negotiations,” says Rogelj. “Its conclusions are constantly mirrored in the final decision texts of the climate summits.” KP Further info UNEP (2014). The Emissions Gap Report 2014. United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), Nairobi. § www.iiasa.ac.at/impacts/emissionsgap Joeri Rogelj rogelj@iiasa.ac.at § Keywan Riahi riahi@iiasa.ac.at 2015 is a pivotal year in global agreements related to climate change, disaster finance, and sustainable development. IIASA and its partners are injecting science into the process at a number of key stops along the way. The post‑2015 agenda Delhi Sustainable Development Summit IIASA leaders participate in the annual summit  on sustainable development and climate change. 5–7 Feb  Delhi, India 10–12 Mar  Vienna, Austria Towards a Sustainable Future IIASA and partners launch two new projects, The  World in 2050 and Integrated Solutions. World Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction IIASA researchers inform deliberations regarding disaster risk reduction at the third UN summit. 14–18 Mar  Sendai, Japan