Page - 26 - in options, Volume summer 2015

europe 26 options + summer 2015 www.iiasa.ac.at regional focus Economic dialogue across the Eurasian continent In November 2014 IIASA welcomed economists and decision makers from Europe, Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine, to discuss non-customs trade barriers and technical regulations, known as non-tariff barriers to trade (NTBs), between these countries. NTBs can play an important role in limiting the flows of goods and services from one country to another. Yet economists do not universally agree on the definition of such barriers, and methodologies for quantifying and categorizing NTBs vary widely. So when countries evaluate the benefits and costs of alternative trade agreements, they often find very different results. Given the current political complexities in the region, even such technical topics can inspire a great deal of misunderstanding. The meeting at IIASA aimed to clarify at least some of these and foster a constructive discussion on ways to ensure more liberalized trade, and therefore cheaper goods and services for people, as well as simpler and more favorable conditions for businesses across the region. The workshop participants largely agreed that economic integration and further trade liberalization are likely to benefit all countries, especially in the long run, although in general, large countries and businesses benefit more from economic integration than smaller ones. Participants also agreed that from an economic point of view, trade-related sanctions are not an effective method of inducing policy change. “The biggest confusion at the workshop was related to political motivations,” says IIASA researcher Leena Ilmola. She  explained that different countries not only have different motivations for pursuing economic integration, but also perceive other countries’ motivations differently. Participants also had different views on the immediate impacts of economic integration, and how long transitions should take. “What everyone at the meeting agreed was that in the current time of major political transformations, a dialogue supported by science-based evidence is incredibly important,” says IIASA Advanced Systems Analysis Program Director Elena  Rovenskaya. KL Further info The November 2014 workshop, Non-Tariff Barriers and Technical Regulations, was  organized as part of the IIASA Futures Initiative, “Challenges and Opportunities of Economic Integration within a Wider European and Eurasian Space.” §  www.iiasa.ac.at/EconomicIntegration Elena Rovenskaya rovenska@iiasa.ac.at More effort needed to clear Europe’s air Although current air quality legislation in Europe will lead to significant reductions in particulate matter pollution by 2030, many areas of Europe will continue to see air pollution levels above the limits set by the European Union and the World Health Organization unless further emission control efforts are undertaken. These are the findings of a study published in the journal Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics by IIASA researchers and partners. The study, led by Gregor Kiesewetter, used  IIASA’s GAINS model and detailed air quality data to improve the model’s estimation of ground-level pollution. It compared two scenarios for future pollution levels in 2030: one where only currently agreed air quality legislation is enforced and one where the most efficient air pollution control technologies were implemented across Europe. The researchers found that strict control of vehicle and industrial emissions alone will not be sufficient to achieve the limit values; additional action to limit emissions from agriculture and domestic heating would be needed. Under current legislation, air pollution hotspots will likely remain in southeastern Europe, southern Poland and major European cities such as Milan, Paris, and Warsaw. Kiesewetter says, “This is the first time that we have analyzed particulate matter at individual monitoring stations across Europe, from regional background to urban street levels, exactly where it’s important to know if air quality limits will be met. We show the potential and the need for further emission controls to achieve safe levels of air quality. Current legislation will not do  the job.” KL Further info Kiesewetter G, Borken-Kleefeld J, Schöpp W, Heyes C, Thunis P, Bessagnet B, Terrenoire  E, Fagerli H, Nyiri A, Amann M (2015). Modelling street level PM10 concentrations across Europe: Source apportionment and possible futures. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 15(3):1539–1553 [doi:10.5194/acp-15-1539-2015]. Gregor Kiesewetter kiesewet@iiasa.ac.at © To wnD ow n | W iki me di a Co m m on s