Page - 16 - in options, Volume summer 2016

16 options + summer 2016 www.iiasa.ac.at A change is in the air Climate change is central to all aspects of the global transformation that must be achieved, because none of the myriad challenges we face—from biodiversity loss to hunger—can be dealt with in the absence of action on climate change. Unfortunately, progress in achieving the emissions reductions needed to minimize temperature increases is not heartening. Current national pledges to deal with climate change (the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions, or INDCs) are not sufficient to limit global warming to 2°C above pre‑industrial levels, let alone 1.5°C, the latest UN Environment Programme (UNEP) Emissions Gap report concluded. However, failure is not inevitable; in the only study which had explicitly investigated the 1.5°C target before the Paris summit, IIASA researchers showed how limiting temperature rise to less than 1.5°C by 2100 can technically be achieved; but action must begin immediately. “That we need to do more, and we need to do it now, is beyond doubt,” says  IIASA researcher Joeri Rogelj, lead  author of the study and key contributor to the UNEP  report. The inconvenient truth is that, along with substantial increases in energy efficiency, global emissions must peak as soon as 2020 if we are to limit warming to 1.5°C by 2100. Deep cuts will be required across all sectors, and global carbon neutrality will need to be reached 10 to 20 years earlier than projected for 2°C scenarios. Achieving this will require a fundamental change in how we think about climate change. “Policymakers, scientists, and society as a whole must abandon the idea of climate change as a single, discrete issue,” says IIASA Director General and CEO Professor Dr. Pavel Kabat. IIASA is moving away from treating problems (such as climate change) drivers (such as population growth) and impacts (such as habitat degradation) as separate entities. The  IIASA  Research Plan 2016–2020 recognizes that all such factors are closely linked, and the work of the institute is now firmly rooted in integrating all dimensions of sustainability. Climate and development, hand in hand Ensuring that climate action is integrated into sustainable development, and vice versa, is the primary aim of the IIASA‑led project Linking Climate and Development Policies —Leveraging International Networks and Knowledge Sharing (CD‑LINKS). The project aims to develop pathways, or  storylines, which show how climate change mitigation could occur in conjunction with sustainable development objectives, and what synergies and trade‑offs between the interlinked goals might arise. “Traditionally, climate has been modeled globally, while national models have focused on local challenges, such as water security” says IIASA Energy Program Director Keywan Riahi. “But CD‑LINKS has brought together national and global research teams to © pagadesign | iStockphoto.com Can we really achieve these ambitious targets? What  changes must be made? What new paths must  be taken? Lacking in the lofty aspirations of 2015 was much mention of accountability, or serious deadlines. The SDGs are in no sense legally binding, and no time limit was given for 1.5°C target. And yet, the deadlines are there, imposed upon us  by our own planet, as the climate warms, species go extinct, and hunger grows.