Page - 17 - in options, Volume summer 2016

17summer 2016 + optionswww.iiasa.ac.at identify solutions which are climate friendly without compromising other sustainable development objectives.” Research to date has attempted to deal with sustainability objectives by focusing on a single issue—reducing air pollution, for instance—and then analyzing how achieving it might affect others: climate change, ecosystems, or health. “That’s a start,” says Riahi. “But in reality decision makers want to know how to maximize multiple objectives with a limited budget. The moment you put one objective into the center and the others on the periphery you are creating a subjective  ranking.” The €5.5 million project, encompassing 18 international partners, is producing specific roadmaps for the majority of the G20 countries. The need to ratchet up countries’ INDCs was a key part of the Paris agreement, and the CD‑LINKS roadmaps will provide policymakers with concrete advice on measures needed to meet long‑term objectives. Importantly, the project will also identify countries which are already showcasing best practices—where policies are consistent with both climate and broader sustainable development goals— and those where current policy is creating barriers to sustainability. The basis of these transformation pathways will be a suite of models focused on climate mitigation and adaptation, coupled with information on other sustainable development objectives, including economic development, energy poverty, air quality, food security, biodiversity, climate adaptation, and energy security. Drawing up strategies for future sustainability is, of course, only the first step; successful implementation will be the real challenge. In recognition of this, the project will also ask the hard questions policymakers must face: Do the model projections imply unrealistic investments in new infrastructure? Will these investments require additional policies? The bigger picture Ultimately, no individual SDG is the goal. Only together do they achieve the future we need. “The objectives tabled in 2015 aimed impressively high,” says IIASA Deputy Director General Nebojsa Nakicenovic. “But  there is no single scientific assessment that has looked at whether the implementation of all 17 Sustainable Development Goals is possible. Not even in basic terms of what kind of investments and technologies are needed, let alone the complexities of governance.” The World In 2050 (TWI2050) project, however, aims to do just that. The project will examine the synergies and trade‑offs between SDGs, as well as looking beyond them to a future where humanity thrives on a stable, resilient planet. The complexity of this challenge is staggering. Examining just one issue—how to ensure water security in the face of climate  change, for instance—involves a vast number of variables and unknowns. There are myriad difficulties associated with gathering information on all 17  SDGs, integrating the data, and analyzing it in models which all have their own associated uncertainties. Can  it be done in any meaningful way? “It is true that there are SDGs that are very difficult to define in a quantitative, modeling sense,” says Nakicenovic. “But for some goals, for example the energy goal, we can give a clear picture of what needs to be done and even when and by whom.” So, although the project is in the very early stages, that plan is to start with what can be done, and model factors such as energy, climate, health, and the financial sector. At the same time the project will bring in experts on the more difficult goals— gender equality, ecosystem protection—and discussions will begin as to how these can be incorporated. “This  will  involve a concerted, interdisciplinary effort,” says Nakicenovic. IIASA researchers are not attempting such a feat for trivial reasons. There are two major dangers if the SDGs are not implemented in an integrated way. The first is that the costs will be immense: lack of integration may mean losing out on chances to benefit from synergies between the goals, leading to inefficient, expensive alternatives. The second danger is that solutions for one goal may end up eroding progress towards another. Examining these issues together as part of a whole is a vital step on the road to a sustainable future, and although they may not be explicit in international agreements, our deadlines are looming. DB Further info www.cdlinks.org § www.iiasa.ac.at/TWI2050 Pavel Kabat kabat@iiasa.ac.at Nebojsa  Nakicenovic naki@iiasa.ac.at Keywan Riahi riahi@iiasa.ac.at Joeri  Rogelj rogelj@iiasa.ac.at IIASA at the heart of climate research As early as 1978 the institute held a meeting entitled Carbon Dioxide, Climate and Society to discuss how rising CO2 as a result of fossil fuel use might affect the Earth’s climate. In  1979, IIASA  predicted temperature rises of between 1°C and 4°C by 2050—a projection that is remarkably similar to that of today’s most sophisticated models. IIASA also played a key role at the landmark Villach conference in 1985, which led to the establishment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). IIASA work has been central in developing the scenarios for the IPCC’s Special Report on Emissions Scenarios used by scientific communities to understand driving forces as well as mitigation and adaptation response strategies. Over  the past few years, IIASA has been one of four modeling groups to develop the new generation of scenarios, the Representative Concentration Pathways and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, which include cases where the climate is stabilized at minimal temperature increases, so-called “low  climate stabilization scenarios.” +