Page - 22 - in options, Volume summer 2016

africa 22 options + summer 2016 www.iiasa.ac.at regional focus A crime buster: Making the grade in South Africa Up to 49 people are murdered every day in South Africa, according to the government’s own figures. Between April 2014 and March 2015 17,805 people were killed. Tackling the country’s appalling crime rate has been a stated aim of all post‑Apartheid governments but progress is elusive. Now an IIASA study establishes a strong link between disengagement from education and engagement in crime. “Even after controlling for ethnicity and race we show that it is those who have not completed grade 12 who are more likely to be in jail,” says IIASA researcher Anne  Goujon. In a paper from November 2015 Goujon and colleagues conclude that South African crime fighting measures should include an increase in school retention. They also raise questions about the quality of education. Out  of 100 pupils who start school 50 will drop out before grade  12 (the  last year of high school), failing to gain the literacy and numeracy skills required for the workforce. For these individuals, mostly young men, “crime  might seem like the only opportunity to escape poverty,” concludes  Goujon. The research also finds that education influences the type of crime with the probability of committing “contact crimes” including vandalism, threat, assault, and injury decreasing with years of education. On the other hand, the likelihood of white‑collar crimes, such as tax fraud, increases with years of education. The  research does not take into account people who have committed crimes but have not been caught. “It would be interesting to see how educated those are,” jokes Goujon. KS Further info Jonck  P, Goujon  A, Testa  MR, Kandala  J (2015). Education and crime engagement in  South Africa: A  national and provincial perspective. International Journal of Educational Development 45:141–151 [doi:10.1016/j.ijedudev.2015.10.002]. Anne Goujon goujon@iiasa.ac.at Preventing drought turning into famine When a devastating drought struck the Horn of Africa in 2011 a million people were driven from their homes and a severe food crisis spread across several nations. Aid agencies and international donors were slow to respond despite warnings of a crisis that were given as early as August 2010. Weather forecasts beyond one month are currently inaccurate and this is unlikely to change in the near future, making long‑range drought forecasting difficult. However, evidence of deficits in soil moisture, either at the beginning of, or  during, crucial parts of the growing season, can provide useful early  warning information says IIASA  researcher Linda See. Drought forecasting can become more effective if the full potential of satellite soil moisture measuring is exploited, she  says. “Vegetation status is a response to soil moisture so measuring anomalous behavior in soil moisture through remote sensing provides extra time for early warning purposes.” In a IIASA paper See and fellow researchers argue that there’s a gap between scientific findings and the use of those findings. Closing that gap in Africa could prevent drought turning into famine, they write. The key to success, says See, “is  working with stakeholders such as Doctors Without Borders to really understand their information needs.” The tools can then be developed to ensure that the science and technology feed decision making processes ensuring early warnings are acted upon. KS Further info Ennkel  M, See  L, Bonifacio  R, Boken  V, Chaney  N, Vinck  P, You  L, Dutra  E, Anderson  M (2015). Drought and food security —Improving decision-support via new technologies and  innovative collaboration. Global Food Security 4:51–55 [doi:10.1016/j.gfs.2014.08.005]. Linda See see@iiasa.ac.at