Page - 4 - in options, Volume summer 2017

research newsiiasa research www.iiasa.ac.at4 options ◼ summer 2017 How to deal with loss and damage from climate impacts has been a fundamental issue in international climate negotiations. “Impacts of climate change have been observed for all continents and oceans,” says IIASA researcher Reinhard Mechler. Developing countries in particular are in need of assistance in responding, particularly for unavoidable risks that exceed adaptation capacities. There has been contentious debate between vulnerable countries and developed nations about the rationale, extent, and form of such assistance. This debate on impacts “beyond adaptation” was institutionalized in 2013 via the Warsaw Mechanism on Loss and Damage and further endorsed by the Paris Agreement in 2015, yet the exact remit of loss and damage has not been clarified. In an article published in Science, Mechler and colleague Thomas Schinko show how recent advances in climate risk science can be aligned to a principled approach for identifying a proper policy space, in terms of distinct action beyond support for adaptation. The research, which was also presented at the 2016 climate negotiations in Morocco, suggests the policy space for loss and damage is composed of two sets of options for dealing with impacts. The first set includes curative measures for unavoided and unavoidable risks, such as upgrading coastal protection because of increasing sea levels caused by climate change. The second set of transformative options focus on building resilience against climate- related impacts while also realizing that people and communities will need support to learn new skills and develop alternative livelihoods as well as seek assistance for voluntary migration. KL Further info Mechler R & Schinko T (2016). Identifying the policy space for climate loss and damage. Science 354 (6310): 290-292. [pure.iiasa.ac.at/13886] §  www.iiasa.ac.at/news/loss-damage-16 Reinhard Mechler mechler@iiasa.ac.at Some intense droughts move across continents in predictable patterns, according to recent IIASA research. The study, published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, enriches our understanding of droughts and could improve projections of future drought, allowing for more effective planning. “Most people think of a drought as a local or regional problem, but some intense droughts actually migrate, like a slow- motion hurricane on a timescale of months to years instead of days to weeks,” says Julio Herrera-Estrada, a graduate student in civil and environmental engineering at Princeton, who worked on the study in collaboration with IIASA researcher Yusuke Satoh, as part of the Young Scientists Summer Program. While most droughts tend to stay put near where they started, approximately 10% travel between 1,400 to 3,100 kilometers, the study found. These traveling droughts also tend to be the largest and most severe ones, with the highest potential for damage to the agriculture, energy, water, and humanitarian aid sectors. The researchers analyzed drought data from 1979 to 2009, identifying 1,420 droughts worldwide. They found hotspots on each continent where a number of droughts had followed similar tracks. For example, in the southwestern USA, droughts tend to move from south to north. In Australia, the researchers found two drought hotspots and common directions of movement, one from the east coast in a northwest direction, the other from the central plains in a northeast direction. What causes some droughts to travel remains unclear, but the data suggest that feedback between precipitation and evaporation in the atmosphere and land may play a role. KL Further info Herrera-Estrada JE, Satoh Y, & Sheffield J (2017). Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Global Drought. Geophysical Research Letters 44 (5): 1-25. [pure.iiasa.ac.at/14387] §  www.iiasa.ac.at/news/drought-17 Yusuke Satoh satoh@iiasa.ac.at Risk analysis for common ground on climate loss and damage Droughts may travel along predictable pathways