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research news 6 iiasa research www.iiasa.ac.atoptions ◼ summer 2017 A s incomes rise in developing countries, access to basic amenities such as electricity, clean cooking energy, water, and sanitation, also improves—but not uniformly, and not as quickly as income growth, according to IIASA research. The study looked at historical rates of energy access compared to other living standards and GDP. “What we found is that income growth alone isn’t enough to get these basic necessities to all people in society,” explains IIASA researcher Narasimha D. Rao, who led the study. The researchers also found that access to clean cooking energy and sanitation lagged behind access to electricity and water, a finding which has an outsize impact on the poorest members of society, and especially on women. “Women bear the brunt of health risks that come from cooking with solid fuels, as well as from lack of sanitation, because women are predominantly responsible for cooking and household work,” explains IIASA researcher Shonali Pachauri, who also worked on the study. In order to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals of universal access to clean energy, water, and sanitation by 2030, the study shows, sub-Saharan Africa in particular would have to see unprecedented rates of improvement compared to historical trends in the region. There is room for optimism, however: the study shows that historically, some countries that have more recently improved access have done so faster than those that did so earlier. For instance, most countries that embarked on electrification prior to 1970 took from 19 to 27 years to increase access from 20 to 80% of their population, and up to 40 more years to get to universal access. However, Vietnam and Thailand, which embarked on electrification after 1970, took only 15 years to increase access coverage from 20 to 80%, and a further 11 to 20 years to reach full electrification. KL Further info Rao N & Pachauri S (2017). Energy access and living standards: some observations on recent trends. Environmental Research Letters 12 (2): e025011. [pure.iiasa.ac.at/14343] §  www.iiasa.ac.at/news/living-standards-17 Narasimha D. Rao rao@iiasa.ac.at Carbon sinks could grow weaker Natural carbon sinks will weaken in response to efforts to remove CO2 from the atmosphere, according to a recent study from IIASA scientists. Understanding this effect is vital to devise pathways consistent with the UN’s ambitious 1.5°C and 2°C climate targets. The study found that for a 2°C scenario, land and ocean carbon sinks would weaken to less than half their current amounts between 2050 and 2100, and to near zero by 2300. The study grew out of a 2013 conference on negative emissions hosted at IIASA. www.iiasa.ac.at/news/neg-earth-17 Preventing another financial crisis? Current regulations aimed at reducing the risk of crisis in the financial sector will not effectively reduce that risk, according to a study by IIASA researchers Sebastian Poledna and Stefan Thurner, which relied on a state-of-the-art agent-based model of a financial system and the real economy. Introducing regulations that aim to increase the system network resilience would be more effective, the study showed. www.iiasa.ac.at/news/finance-17 Climate and people Climate change research needs a greater focus on changing population structures when assessing future human vulnerability, argued IIASA researchers Raya Muttarak and Wolfgang Lutz in a recent issue of Nature Climate Change. In order to understand the impacts of climate change on human beings, climate change research needs to explicitly consider forecasting human populations’ capacities to adapt to a changing climate—research that is already being done at IIASA. www.iiasa.ac.at/news/pop-climate-17 Economic growth and deforestation Although economic development has long been assumed to be a driver of deforestation, there has been little reliable data to support the theoretical link. But in a recent study, IIASA researcher Jesus Crespo Cuaresma and colleagues combined satellite data on forest cover with economic data from 130 different countries, enabling them to quantify the relationship. www.iiasa.ac.at/news/forest-dev-17 Living standards lag behind economic growth