Page - 9 - in options, Volume summer 2017

T oday, Germany and Japan look very different in terms of energy policies, but this wasn’t always the case. “In 1990, Germany and Japan had very similar electricity systems, with similar numbers of nuclear power plants,” says IIASA researcher Jessica Jewell. “We wanted to investigate how they ended up so different—with Germany leading the way in renewables and Japan going down a nuclear path.” One common assumption is that political will in Germany was greater, whereas in Japan the strong nuclear lobby quashed any move towards renewables. But a recent study by researchers at IIASA and the Central European University found that it’s not as simple as that. “A key difference between the countries was in electricity demand,” says Jewell, a coauthor on the paper. “In Japan, demand rose rapidly in the 1990s, but in Germany it stagnated.” That gave Germany room to maneuver: it could keep relying on its massive coal reserves and did not need to build new nuclear power plants. It was also aided by new wind turbines developed in Denmark. Japan didn’t have those choices; it had no domestic coal, and at the time Danish wind turbines were not suitable for the geographic conditions in the country. “There are three main policy lessons we can take from this,” says Jewell. “First, political will is not the be all and end all—there is a window where it can make a difference, certainly, but it is far from the sole factor. Second, when translating energy policies between countries we have to be sensitive to demand. China, for example, has rapidly growing demand and can’t be expected to follow Germany’s route of nuclear phase-out. Finally, beware simplistic narratives about international policy lessons. Energy policy learning must be supported by an analysis of the underlying energy systems dynamics, not only of the policies themselves.” DB Further info §  Cherp A, Vinichenko V, Jewell J, Suzuki M, & Antal M (2016). Comparing electricity transitions: A historical analysis of nuclear, wind and solar power in Germany and Japan. Energy Policy 101: 612-628. [pure.iiasa.ac.at/13987] www.cd-links.org §  blog.iiasa.ac.at/jewell-17 Jessica Jewell jewell@iiasa.ac.at science into policyiiasa research www.iiasa.ac.at 9 summer 2017 ◼ options New EU air pollution directive becomes law The new National Emissions Ceilings Directive, which introduces new rules for EU countries to drastically cut air pollution, was created with substantial input from the IIASA Air Quality and Greenhouse Gases Program (AIR). AIR’s Greenhouse Gas - Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies model and its forerunner have provided vital input to European air pollution policy since the 1970s, and the latest directive will reduce the negative health impacts of air pollution by almost half by 2030. www.iiasa.ac.at/impacts/air Policy to combat environmental market failure Neither the damage caused by CO2 emissions nor the benefits of developing renewable energy technology are properly reflected by economic markets. The best policy to deal with these ‘market failures’ is an aggressive renewables subsidy and a carbon tax, an IIASA study found. However, given that policymakers often prefer the carrot to the stick they may rely on the second-best option of subsidy only. If policymakers could fully commit to these policies the best option will lead to a peak warming of 2.1–2.3°C, and without commitment under the second best option, warming would reach 3.5°C, the study showed. pure.iiasa.ac.at/13988 Japan’s changing disaster risk management In Japan, the failure to foresee the catastrophic earthquakes, tsunamis, and nuclear accident of 2011 has been seen by many in the country as a fundamental shortcoming of disaster risk science. The use of scientific knowledge came under renewed scrutiny in light of this, an IIASA study has found. There is now recognition of an overreliance on well-documented hazard risks and more attention paid to less documented but known risks. However, debates continue over the appropriate role of “evidence-based policy” in earthquake and tsunami risk reduction. pure.iiasa.ac.at/12492 blog.iiasa.ac.at/Mochizuki-17 A tale of two countries: Why is Germany not Japan a leader in renewable energy?