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Images © Josh Zakary | Flickr are IIASA’s population projections, which were updated this year to include data up to 2015 and published in a new book in the context of CEPAM. These multidimensional projections include not only age and sex, but also education levels, labor participation, and other factors that play a huge role in migration dynamics. In April 2018, Lutz and colleagues presented the updated projections to policymakers in Brussels, along with initial findings from the initiative. DOES THE EU NEED MIGRANTS? Initial migration scenarios developed through the partnership highlight that the EU’s future labor force depends not only on migration, but also on the proportion of people working. While it is true that Europe’s population is growing older on average, women and people over the age of 65 have been becoming increasingly active in the European labor market in recent years, coinciding with higher rates of education. The research finds that at current rates of labor force participation, the labor force size would indeed decline substantially until 2060. However, if women were to work across the EU at rates common in Sweden, the decline would be much smaller, and could be shored up by a moderate rate of migration. Lutz notes that other factors could also drive changes in labor force participation, for example increasing automation that could reduce the need for unskilled workers, while potentially increasing the need for more educated workers. ASSESSING INTEGRATION Another unique research project focuses on individuals, modeling not just the broad population using three or four attributes, but individuals with a large variety of characteristics including demographic (age and sex, education), ethno-cultural (place of birth, ethnicity, language, religion), and economic (labor activity, employment). Such a detailed view of a subset of the population—a method known as microsimulation—could help answer trickier questions, such as how well immigrants might be able to adjust to their new countries, learn the language, find jobs, and effectively integrate into society. It could also be used to help assess the effectiveness of such policies. Alain Bélanger—a former participant in the IIASA Young Scientists Summer Program—rejoined IIASA in 2016 to develop a microsimulation model that could take into account more of the complexities and dynamics of multiple, highly diverse population groups. He says, “The macro-level approach cannot be used to model the complexities and dynamics of super-diverse populations because it has practical limits in the number of events, states, and groups that it can model.” A GLOBAL VIEW While the project focuses on Europe-specific scenarios, the research takes into account the broader context of worldwide drivers of migration. For example, Lutz notes that population growth in Africa will be a key driver defining how strong future migration will be from the continent. Climate change, which can contribute to conflicts, food insecurity, or other challenges, may be another indirect driver of migration, and IIASA researchers are exploring this aspect as well. Lutz says, “You can’t model migration in Europe without understanding the global demographic drivers.” This big-picture view is a key reason that the IIASA World Population Program was perfectly placed to step in when the EU needed assistance. As their models become more detailed, IIASA demographers hope their research will help policymakers gain a better understanding of the people they are working to help. KL REFERENCES Abel G (2017). Estimates of Global Bilateral Migration Flows by Gender between 1960 and 2015. International Migration Review: 1-44. [pure.iiasa.ac.at/14977] Lutz W, Goujon A, Samir KC, Stonawski M, & Stilianakis N (2018) Demographic and human capital scenarios for the 21st century. Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union. [pure.iiasa.ac.at/15226] Lutz W, Butz WP, KC S (2017). World Population & Human Capital in the Twenty-First Century: An Overview. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press. [pure.iiasa.ac.at/15149] Lutz W & Belanger A (2017). Demographic change and the drivers of future migration into Europe. Approach, methodology and work plan of the JRC/ IIASA Centre of Expertise on Population and Migration. IIASA Report. Laxenburg, Austria: IIASA. [pure.iiasa.ac.at/14535] FURTHER INFORMATION: More in-depth highlights of this research can be found in the latest issue of POPNET www.iiasa.ac.at/popnet/49 UPDATED PROJECTIONS: www.iiasa.ac.at/news/migration-book-18 Wolfgang Lutz: lutz@iiasa.ac.at Estimated global migration flows by gender 2010-15 While global migration flows have been assumed to increase over time, a recent study by IIASA researcher Guy Abel estimates that in fact, the proportion of the global population that migrates has remained steady at 0.65% of the global population over each five-year period since the 1960s. (Abel G, 2017) Joint Research Centre PF-Demographic.indd 1 26.02.18 10:30 Demographic and human capital scenarios for the 21st century 2018 assessment for 201 countries Wolfgang Lutz, Anne Goujon, Samir KC, Marcin Stonawski, Nikolaos Stilianakis (Eds.) www.iiasa.ac.at