Page - 20 - in options, Volume summer 2018

africa 20 regional focus www.iiasa.ac.atoptions ◼ summer 2018 Over the last two decades, scientists have observed an upturn in fertility in several Arab countries. As this trend is in direct contradiction to the demographic transition model, researchers are seeking answers to this puzzling question. Egypt in particular has seen a notable fertility increase. At the onset of the new millennium, Egyptian women had three children each on average. Between 2008 and 2014, this rate rose to 3.5 children. While many point to increased religious freedom in the wake of the Arab Spring, it is becoming clear that this does not provide a comprehensive explanation for the upturn. In a study published in the journal Population and Societies, IIASA researchers Anne Goujon and Zakarya Al Zalak suggest another reason for increased fertility among Egyptian women. According to their research, Egyptian women are facing an increasing lack of opportunities in the workforce. This is particularly true for highly educated women. Egyptian women often choose fields of study that leave them with few options after they graduate. It is therefore evident that it is not only access to education, but rather access to adequate types of education that should be improved. “Whether the fertility of Egyptian women stays above three children or starts declining again in the near future will have huge implications for the country, which is currently both environmentally and economically constrained,” explains Goujon, a researcher in the World Population Program at IIASA. “The evidence suggests that there is a necessity to lower the labor market barriers faced by women and increase their employability.” JS The latest land cover map of Africa, which can pick out features at 20m, is the first produced for a whole continent at such an exceptionally high resolution. IIASA researchers have however found that its accuracy stands at just 65%. Land cover maps show land cover changes and give vital food security information. Accurate land cover maps for Africa are especially crucial for monitoring progress towards the UN Sustainable Development Goals. The new map, published by the European Space Agency Climate Change Initiative in September 2017, was created using images from the Copernicus satellite. The researchers discovered that accuracy is especially low in southern countries and in a band from the horn of Africa to Senegal. “While the resolution is there, the accuracy is not. That however does not mean that this is the final product; it is the first of its kind and it will advance over the coming years,” says Steffen Fritz, IIASA Ecosystems Services and Management Program deputy director. More high-quality data is needed to “train” the algorithm to categorize the images more accurately. Researchers can collect more data on the ground or use visual interpretations of high-resolution imagery, such as the IIASA Geo-Wiki project. After being trained on how to identify different types of land cover in the images, the team were able to categorize 23,264 sample sites with a high level of confidence. HT Further info Goujon A & Al Zalak Z (2018). Why has fertility been increasing in Egypt? Population and Societies 551: 1-4. [pure.iiasa.ac.at/15080] Anne Goujon goujon@iiasa.ac.at Finding a reason for increased fertility among Egyptian women Prototype land cover map of Africa: Great start but more accuracy needed Further info Lesiv M, Fritz S, McCallum I, Tsendbazar N, Herold M, Pekel J-F, Buchhorn M, Smets B, et al. (2017). Evaluation of ESA CCI prototype land cover map at 20m. IIASA Working Paper. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: WP-17-021. [pure.iiasa.ac.at/14979] Steffen Fritz fritz@iiasa.ac.at