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IIASA POLICY BRIEF #16 MARCH 2018 When it comes to survival, mind matters more than money Life expectancy at birth has increased dramatically across the globe. The widely held assumption that health and survival improved due to higher living standards with medical progress also contributing, is being disputed by new research indicating that education in fact drives all these changes. J Setting policy priorities in both developing and industrialized countries is influenced by whether income or education is the most important underlying determinant of mortality decline. The answer matters for choosing between programs that directly promote income growth and those that enhance school enrollment and quality of schooling. While one would ideally promote both of these goals along with good health services, reality often necessitates choices between these priorities. J Since improving health, income, and education are closely inter- woven, it appears difficult to determine the exact patterns of causation. As causes must however always precede consequences, and observed increases in schooling come decades before the resulting higher educational attainment of adults, this problem can be resolved. It is not the fact of being in school but rather the consequent adult skills and knowledge, which results in the behaviors that tend to bring down mortality. J Our analysis shows that better education has positive consequences on both higher income and higher life expectancy, thus resulting in a not necessarily causal association between the two. J Better education also tends to lead to improved cognition, which is in turn associated with longer planning horizons and more conscious choices of health-related behaviors. These mental factors become increasingly important as the burden of disease shifts from infectious to chronic diseases more closely associated with lifestyle decisions. New research provides important insight on the causes and likely scale of a potential water scarcity problem in large parts of Asia in coming decades South Africa – A model for systems analysis development? The Southern African Systems Analysis Centre strengthens links between researchers in South Africa and IIASA Researcher voices Sir Peter Gluckman – Challenges to science diplomacy Angel Gurría – Systems thinking for global challenges Julian Hunt – Water and energy security What drives migration? The quest for migration policies that will benefit Europe and meet humanitarian needs Is Asia facing a coming water crisis? also in this issue summer 2018 SPRING 2018 jointly for Centre of and JRC. scenarios of their demographic attainment Macro-level characteristics that and the population 1 shows and that than in the women–differ member states decline in the combination of the decades, multi-dimensional migrants to 2060 IIASA POLICY BRIEF #16 MARCH 2018 When it comes to survival, mind matters more than money Life expectancy at birth has increased dramatically across the globe. The widely held assumption that health and survival improved due to higher living standards with medical progress also contributing, is being disputed by new research indicating that education in fact drives all these changes. J Setting policy priorities in both developing and industrialized countries is influenced by whether income or education is the most important underlying determinant of mortality decline. The answer matters for choosing between programs that directly promote income growth and those that enhance school enrollment and quality of schooling. While one would ideally promote both of these goals along with good health services, reality often necessitates choices between these priorities. J Since improving health, income, and education are closely inter- woven, it appears difficult to determine the exact patterns of causation. As causes must however always precede consequences, and observed increases in schooling come decades before the resulting higher educational attainment of adults, this problem can be resolved. It is not the fact of being in school but rather the consequent adult skills and knowledge, which results in the behaviors that tend to bring down mortality. J Our analysis shows that better education has positive consequences on both higher income and higher life expectancy, thus resulting in a not necessarily causal association between the two. J Better education also tends to lead to improved cognition, which is in turn associated with longer planning horizons and more conscious choices of health-related behaviors. These mental factors become increasingly important as the burden of disease shifts from infectious to chronic diseases more closely associated with lifestyle decisions. New research provides important insight on the causes and likely scale of a potential water scarcity problem in large parts of Asia in coming decades South Africa – A model for systems analysis development? The Southern African Systems Analysis Centre strengthens links between researchers in South Africa and IIASA Researcher voices Sir Peter Gluckman – Challenges to science diplomacy Angel Gurría – Systems thinking for global challenges Julian Hunt – Water and energy security What drives migration? The quest for migration policies that will benefit Europe and meet humanitarian needs Is Asia facing a coming water crisis? also in this issue summer 2018 SPRING 2018 jointly for Centre of and JRC. scenarios of their demographic attainment Macro-level characteristics that and the population 1 shows and that than in the women–differ member states decline in the combination of the decades, multi-dimensional migrants to 2060 representing economy report IIASA into global environmental, IIASA POLICY BRIEF #16 MARCH 2018 When it comes to survival, mind matters more than money Life expectancy at birth has increased dramatically across the globe. The widely held assumption that health and survival improved due to higher living standards with medical progress also contributing, is being disputed by new research indicating that education in fact drives all these changes. J Setting policy priorities in both developing and industrialized countries is influenced by whether income or education is the most important underlying determinant of mortality decline. The answer matters for choosing between programs that directly promote income growth and those that enhance school enrollment and quality of schooling. While one would ideally promote both of these goals along with good health services, reality often necessitates choices between these priorities. J Since improving health, income, and education are closely inter- woven, it appears difficult to determine the exact patterns of causation. As causes must however always precede consequences, and observed increases in schooling come decades before the resulting higher educational attainment of adults, this problem can be resolved. It is not the fact of being in school but rather the consequent adult skills and knowledge, which results in the behaviors that tend to bring down mortality. J Our analysis shows that better education has positive consequences on both higher income and higher life expectancy, thus resulting in a not necessarily causal association between the two. J Better education also tends to lead to improved cognition, which is in turn associated with longer planning horizons and more conscious choices of health-related behaviors. These mental factors become increasingly important as the burden of disease shifts from infectious to chronic diseases more closely associated with lifestyle decisions. New research provides important insight on the causes and likely scale of a potential water scarcity problem in large parts of Asia in coming decades South Africa – A model for systems analysis development? The Southern African Systems Analysis Centre strengthens links between researchers in South Africa and IIASA Researcher voices Sir Peter Gluckman – Challenges to science diplomacy Angel Gurría – Systems thinking for global challenges Julian Hunt – Water and energy security What drives migration? The quest for migration policies that will benefit Europe and meet humanitarian needs Is Asia facing a coming water crisis? also in this issue summer 2018 UPDATES FROM THE WITTGENSTEIN CENTRE NO. 49, SPRING 2018 POPULATION NETWORK NEWSLETTER Does Europe need migrants for demographic reasons? IIASA and the Joint Research Centre (JRC) of the European Commission jointly assess demographic pull and push factors for migration and the potential for integration into European society. T his issue of POPNET highlights selected ongoing research activities of the Centre of Expertise on Population and Migration (CEPAM), which is jointly run by IIASA and JRC. These activities serve as background for the definition of alternative migration scenarios corresponding to possible alternative migration policies, and the assessment of their implications for receiving and sending societies. Going beyond the conventional demographic focus on age and sex, it applies a multi-dimensional approach including educational attainment and labor force participation for assessing the future supply of labor in Europe. Macro-level analysis is complemented by micro-simulation models addressing relevant characteristics that matter for integration, such as language, region of origin, duration of stay, religion, and the education level of mothers. It is often said that Europe needs migrants for demographic reasons due to its aging population and the resulting decline in the number of conventionally defined working age people. Figure 1 shows that such a decline indeed results from a scenario of constant labor force participation rates and that in the hypothetical case of zero migration, the decline in the labor force is even stronger than in the case of medium migration. But current labor force participation rates–especially of women–differ greatly within the EU being highest in Sweden and lowest in the South and East. If all member states by 2060 approached the participation rates already observed in Sweden today, the future decline in the total labor force would be insignificant in the case of medium migration. Under a combination of the Swedish benchmark with a doubling of the average migration rates observed over the past decades, the total labor force of the EU-28 would actually increase. This illustrates how a multi-dimensional demographic perspective can shed new light on the widely held view that Europe needs migrants to maintain its labor force. Wolfgang Lutz Editorial A dramatic surge in the number of migrants, refugees, and asylum seekers in Europe over the past couple of years, has given rise to public concern about the social and economic impacts of migration. Policy debate has centered on issues such as how to curb the influx of migrants from potential sending countries; how to promote the integration of newly arrived migrants; and how to deal with local-level social and public service impacts. Deriving policy solutions to these questions require an empirical understanding of the drivers of migration, how many and who the migrants are, and what likely future scenarios entail. Demography is a scientific discipline that makes use of data, models and toolboxes to understand migration and its consequences. This POPNET issue aims to deepen our knowledge of migration in the European context in light of its drivers and the integration of migrants. Demographic forecasts are useful in the analysis of push-pull factors that drive migration from the perspective of both sending and receiving countries. Changing age structure and educational distribution, and their relationship with income growth in European countries, for example, facilitates our understanding of the potential economic and fiscal impacts of population aging. Likewise, the study of environmental migration allows us to forecast how future global environmental changes may influence out-migration from countries susceptible to climate change. The ability to migrate and respond to environmental change, of course, depends on a population’s adaptive capacity, which is largely determined by demographic characteristics– particularly education. Using multi-state population projection methods, we can forecast what the adaptive capacity of societies will look like under different socioeconomic development scenarios. Methods such as microsimulation can for instance be applied to investigate different dimensions of migrants’ integration patterns including education, employment, and fertility behavior. The results of these exercises allow us to understand how population dynamics interact with socioeconomic and ecological changes in shaping an outlook for the future —Raya Muttarak Total labor force size in the EU according to 5 scenarios, 2015-2060 Source: Loichinger&Marois 2018 280.000 247.500 215.000 182.500 150.000 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 Constant medium Constant - 0 migration Swedish medium Swedish - double migration Swedish - 0 migration New research provides important insight on the causes and likely scale of a potential water scarcity problem in large parts of Asia in coming decades South Africa – A model for systems analysis development? The Southern African Systems Analysis Centre strengthens links between researchers in South Africa and IIASA Researcher voices Sir Peter Gluckman – Challenges to science diplomacy Angel Gurría – Systems thinking for global challenges Julian Hunt – Water and energy security What drives migration? The quest for migration policies that will benefit Europe and meet humanitarian needs Is Asia facing a coming water crisis? also in this issue summer 2018 IIASAhas 23 member countries representing 71% of the world’s economy and 63% of the world’s population. Annual report 2017. IIASA conducts research into the critical issues of global environmental, IIASA is an international institute that conducts policy-oriented research into problems that are too complex to be solved by a single country or discipline — such as climate change, energy security, and sustainable development. IIASA POLICY BRIEF #16 MARCH 2018 When it comes to survival, mind matters more than money Life expectancy at birth has increased dramatically across the globe. The widely held assumption that health and survival improved due to higher living standards with medical progress also contributing, is being disputed by new research indicating that education in fact drives all these changes. J Setting policy priorities in both developing and industrialized countries is influenced by whether income or education is the most important underlying determinant of mortality decline. The answer matters for choosing between programs that directly promote income growth and those that enhance school enrollment and quality of schooling. While one would ideally promote both of these goals along with good health services, reality often necessitates choices between these priorities. J Since improving health, income, and education are closely inter- woven, it appears difficult to determine the exact patterns of causation. As causes must however always precede consequences, and observed increases in schooling come decades before the resulting higher educational attainment of adults, this problem can be resolved. It is not the fact of being in school but rather the consequent adult skills and knowledge, which results in the behaviors that tend to bring down mortality. J Our analysis shows that better education has positive consequences on both higher income and higher life expectancy, thus resulting in a not necessarily causal association between the two. J Better education also tends to lead to improved cognition, which is in turn associated with longer planning horizons and more conscious choices of health-related behaviors. These mental factors become increasingly important as the burden of disease shifts from infectious to chronic diseases more closely associated with lifestyle decisions. New research provides important insight on the causes and likely scale of a potential water scarcity problem in large parts of Asia in coming decades South Africa – A model for systems analysis development? The Southern African Systems Analysis Centre strengthens links between researchers in South Africa and IIASA Researcher voices Sir Peter Gluckman – Challenges to science diplomacy Angel Gurría – Systems thinking for global challenges Julian Hunt – Water and energy security What drives migration? The quest for migration policies that will benefit Europe and meet humanitarian needs Is Asia facing a coming water crisis? also in this issue summer 2018 UPDATES FROM THE WITTGENSTEIN CENTRE NO. 49, SPRING 2018 POPULATION NETWORK NEWSLETTER Does Europe need migrants for demographic reasons? IIASA and the Joint Research Centre (JRC) of the European Commission jointly assess demographic pull and push factors for migration and the potential for integration into European society. T his issue of POPNET highlights selected ongoing research activities of the Centre of Expertise on Population and Migration (CEPAM), which is jointly run by IIASA and JRC. These activities serve as background for the definition of alternative migration scenarios corresponding to possible alternative migration policies, and the assessment of their implications for receiving and sending societies. Going beyond the conventional demographic focus on age and sex, it applies a multi-dimensional approach including educational attainment and labor force participation for assessing the future supply of labor in Europe. Macro-level analysis is complemented by micro-simulation models addressing relevant characteristics that matter for integration, such as language, region of origin, duration of stay, religion, and the education level of mothers. It is often said that Europe needs migrants for demographic reasons due to its aging population and the resulting decline in the number of conventionally defined working age people. Figure 1 shows that such a decline indeed results from a scenario of constant labor force participation rates and that in the hypothetical case of zero migration, the decline in the labor force is even stronger than in the case of medium migration. But current labor force participation rates–especially of women–differ greatly within the EU being highest in Sweden and lowest in the South and East. If all member states by 2060 approached the participation rates already observed in Sweden today, the future decline in the total labor force would be insignificant in the case of medium migration. Under a combination of the Swedish benchmark with a doubling of the average migration rates observed over the past decades, the total labor force of the EU-28 would actually increase. This illustrates how a multi-dimensional demographic perspective can shed new light on the widely held view that Europe needs migrants to maintain its labor force. Wolfgang Lutz Editorial A dramatic surge in the number of migrants, refugees, and asylum seekers in Europe over the past couple of years, has given rise to public concern about the social and economic impacts of migration. Policy debate has centered on issues such as how to curb the influx of migrants from potential sending countries; how to promote the integration of newly arrived migrants; and how to deal with local-level social and public service impacts. Deriving policy solutions to these questions require an empirical understanding of the drivers of migration, how many and who the migrants are, and what likely future scenarios entail. Demography is a scientific discipline that makes use of data, models and toolboxes to understand migration and its consequences. This POPNET issue aims to deepen our knowledge of migration in the European context in light of its drivers and the integration of migrants. Demographic forecasts are useful in the analysis of push-pull factors that drive migration from the perspective of both sending and receiving countries. Changing age structure and educational distribution, and their relationship with income growth in European countries, for example, facilitates our understanding of the potential economic and fiscal impacts of population aging. Likewise, the study of environmental migration allows us to forecast how future global environmental changes may influence out-migration from countries susceptible to climate change. The ability to migrate and respond to environmental change, of course, depends on a population’s adaptive capacity, which is largely determined by demographic characteristics– particularly education. Using multi-state population projection methods, we can forecast what the adaptive capacity of societies will look like under different socioeconomic development scenarios. Methods such as microsimulation can for instance be applied to investigate different dimensions of migrants’ integration patterns including education, employment, and fertility behavior. The results of these exercises allow us to understand how population dynamics interact with socioeconomic and ecological changes in shaping an outlook for the future —Raya Muttarak Total labor force size in the EU according to 5 scenarios, 2015-2060 Source: Loichinger&Marois 2018 280.000 247.500 215.000 182.500 150.000 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 Constant medium Constant - 0 migration Swedish medium Swedish - double migration Swedish - 0 migration IIASA has 23 member countries representing 71% of the world’s economy and 63% of the world’s population. Annual report 2017. IIASA conducts research into the critical issues of global environmental, IIASA is an international institute that conducts policy-oriented research into problems that are too complex to be solved by a single country or discipline — such as climate change, energy security, and sustainable development. IIASA POLICY BRIEF #16 MARCH 2018 When it comes to survival, mind matters more than money Life expectancy at birth has increased dramatically across the globe. The widely held assumption that health and survival improved due to higher living standards with medical progress also contributing, is being disputed by new research indicating that education in fact drives all these changes. J Setting policy priorities in both developing and industrialized countries is influenced by whether income or education is the most important underlying determinant of mortality decline. The answer matters for choosing between programs that directly promote income growth and those that enhance school enrollment and quality of schooling. While one would ideally promote both of these goals along with good health services, reality often necessitates choices between these priorities. J Since improving health, income, and education are closely inter- woven, it appears difficult to determine the exact patterns of causation. As causes must however always precede consequences, and observed increases in schooling come decades before the resulting higher educational attainment of adults, this problem can be resolved. It is not the fact of being in school but rather the consequent adult skills and knowledge, which results in the behaviors that tend to bring down mortality. J Our analysis shows that better education has positive consequences on both higher income and higher life expectancy, thus resulting in a not necessarily causal association between the two. J Better education also tends to lead to improved cognition, which is in turn associated with longer planning horizons and more conscious choices of health-related behaviors. These mental factors become increasingly important as the burden of disease shifts from infectious to chronic diseases more closely associated with lifestyle decisions. New research provides important insight on the causes and likely scale of a potential water scarcity problem in large parts of Asia in coming decades South Africa – A model for systems analysis development? The Southern African Systems Analysis Centre strengthens links between researchers in South Africa and IIASA Researcher voices Sir Peter Gluckman – Challenges to science diplomacy Angel Gurría – Systems thinking for global challenges Julian Hunt – Water and energy security What drives migration? The quest for migration policies that will benefit Europe and meet humanitarian needs Is Asia facing a coming water crisis? also in this issue summer 2018 UPDATES FROM THE WITTGENSTEIN CENTRE NO. 49, SPRING 2018 POPULATION NETWORK NEWSLETTER Does Europe need migrants for demographic reasons? IIASA and the Joint Research Centre (JRC) of the European Commission jointly assess demographic pull and push factors for migration and the potential for integration into European society. T his issue of POPNET highlights selected ongoing research activities of the Centre of Expertise on Population and Migration (CEPAM), which is jointly run by IIASA and JRC. These activities serve as background for the definition of alternative migration scenarios corresponding to possible alternative migration policies, and the assessment of their implications for receiving and sending societies. Going beyond the conventional demographic focus on age and sex, it applies a multi-dimensional approach including educational attainment and labor force participation for assessing the future supply of labor in Europe. Macro-level analysis is complemented by micro-simulation models addressing relevant characteristics that matter for integration, such as language, region of origin, duration of stay, religion, and the education level of mothers. It is often said that Europe needs migrants for demographic reasons due to its aging population and the resulting decline in the number of conventionally defined working age people. Figure 1 shows that such a decline indeed results from a scenario of constant labor force participation rates and that in the hypothetical case of zero migration, the decline in the labor force is even stronger than in the case of medium migration. But current labor force participation rates–especially of women–differ greatly within the EU being highest in Sweden and lowest in the South and East. If all member states by 2060 approached the participation rates already observed in Sweden today, the future decline in the total labor force would be insignificant in the case of medium migration. Under a combination of the Swedish benchmark with a doubling of the average migration rates observed over the past decades, the total labor force of the EU-28 would actually increase. This illustrates how a multi-dimensional demographic perspective can shed new light on the widely held view that Europe needs migrants to maintain its labor force. Wolfgang Lutz Editorial A dramatic surge in the number of migrants, refugees, and asylum seekers in Europe over the past couple of years, has given rise to public concern about the social and economic impacts of migration. Policy debate has centered on issues such as how to curb the influx of migrants from potential sending countries; how to promote the integration of newly arrived migrants; and how to deal with local-level social and public service impacts. Deriving policy solutions to these questions require an empirical understanding of the drivers of migration, how many and who the migrants are, and what likely future scenarios entail. Demography is a scientific discipline that makes use of data, models and toolboxes to understand migration and its consequences. This POPNET issue aims to deepen our knowledge of migration in the European context in light of its drivers and the integration of migrants. Demographic forecasts are useful in the analysis of push-pull factors that drive migration from the perspective of both sending and receiving countries. Changing age structure and educational distribution, and their relationship with income growth in European countries, for example, facilitates our understanding of the potential economic and fiscal impacts of population aging. Likewise, the study of environmental migration allows us to forecast how future global environmental changes may influence out-migration from countries susceptible to climate change. The ability to migrate and respond to environmental change, of course, depends on a population’s adaptive capacity, which is largely determined by demographic characteristics– particularly education. Using multi-state population projection methods, we can forecast what the adaptive capacity of societies will look like under different socioeconomic development scenarios. Methods such as microsimulation can for instance be applied to investigate different dimensions of migrants’ integration patterns including education, employment, and fertility behavior. The results of these exercises allow us to understand how population dynamics interact with socioeconomic and ecological changes in shaping an outlook for the future —Raya Muttarak Total labor force size in the EU according to 5 scenarios, 2015-2060 Source: Loichinger&Marois 2018 280.000 247.500 215.000 182.500 150.000 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 Constant medium Constant - 0 migration Swedish medium Swedish - double migration Swedish - 0 migration IIASA has 23 member countries IIASA is an international institute that IIASA POLICY BRIEF #16 MARCH 2018 POPULATION NETWORK NEWSLETTER To receive the latest IIASA publications and news Sign up or update your subscription preferences: www.iiasa.ac.at/KeepInTouch