Page - 20 - in options, Volume summer 2019

More than half the global population without access to modern energy services live in Sub-Saharan Africa. It makes sense, then, that this region is at the center of the ongoing dialogue around energy poverty. The region is home to abundant natural energy resources but lacks the finance and infrastructure prerequisites to tap its resource endowment and address energy poverty. Chief among these is hydropower, as there are a number of significant potential sources, including Lake Victoria and the White Nile. In a 2018 study, researchers performed a technical assessment of small-scale hydropower in Sub- Saharan Africa. The authors hope that the resulting data will help to fill in some of the knowledge gaps and serve as a tool for policymakers as they develop solutions for the region’s growing energy demands. “When it comes to climate resilience of a hydropower dominated electricity generation mix for East Africa, we don’t just need a plan B,” explains Holger Rogner, one of the authors of the study. “What is needed is a plan C built on B with a probabilistic risk assessment and a variety of response strategies — a kind of optimized insurance plan — that addresses how to respond to varying precipitation patterns resulting from climate change and other uncertainties.” Worldwide, countries are faced with the challenge of meeting energy demand with clean, affordable, and sustainable energy solutions. This is especially true for African nations like Morocco, who face increasing demand and lack critical infrastructure for sustainable electricity supply. The country will be forced to rely on electricity from fossil fuels, which will lead to higher fossil fuel import dependency and increasing levels of carbon emissions. To counter this, Morocco has increased its goal to deploy renewable energy sources over the next decades. Naturally, this fundamental disruption of the country’s current energy sector will require significant investments – both public and private. A recent IIASA study found that jointly evaluating different electricity generation portfolios with stakeholders enables a better understanding of their risks, leading to increased political feasibility of sustainable energy transition pathways. “Investment risks and their related financing costs are a crucial determinant for the success of a low-carbon energy transition in Morocco and beyond,” explains Thomas Schinko, a researcher in the IIASA Risk and Resilience Program and one of the authors of the study. “Our results show that de-risking of capital-intensive renewable energy projects can be effective in achieving cost competitiveness of a 100% renewable energy- based electricity system with mixed-technology scenarios.” Addressing investment risks for low-carbon electricity in Morocco Further info: Schinko T, Bohm S, Komendantova N, Jamea El M, & Blohm M (2019). Morocco’s sustainable energy transition and the role of financing costs: a participatory electricity system modeling approach. Energy, Sustainability and Society 9 (1): 1-17. [pure.iiasa.ac.at/15682] Thomas Schinko: schinko@iiasa.ac.at Further info: Korkovelos A, Mentis D, Siyal S, Arderne C, Rogner H, Bazilian M, Howells M, Beck H, et al. (2018). A Geospatial Assessment of Small-Scale Hydropower Potential in Sub- Saharan Africa. Energies 11 (11): p. 3100. [pure.iiasa.ac.at/15642] Holger Rogner: rogner@iiasa.ac.at Written by: Jeremy Summers Examining the potential of hydropower in Sub-Saharan Africa / AFRICARegional impacts www.iiasa.ac.at20 Options Summer 2019