Page - 23 - in options, Volume summer 2019

Droughts pose a significant challenge to farmers and governments worldwide. Apart from immediate effects like crop losses, droughts could cause a domino effect that can wreak havoc on businesses and the environment. The effects of climate change will likely cause droughts to occur more frequently and with greater severity, which means that businesses like insurance companies will have to absorb greater losses. Although it may not be possible to prevent these effects, it is possible to prepare for them. A recent study demonstrated that a large-scale drought risk assessment could help quantify the effects of current and future droughts. While previous assessments focused on average changes, this study was able to capture changes in a probabilistic way. This more accurate information makes it possible to properly prepare for droughts and to mitigate some of the negative effects of climate change. “While our analysis shows that an increase in extreme risk of drought losses due to climate change can be expected in Austria, it also provides a possible way forward to deal with them,” explains Stefan Hochrainer- Stigler, a researcher with the IIASA Risk and Resilience Program. “By adapting risk financing instruments, like subsidized insurance, that are already in place, we can mitigate some of the significant costs associated with drought.” Population levels are affected by many things, from fertility and mortality rates to migration and population structure. It is crucial to understand not just how populations might change in the future, but also why they are changing. In their recent Russian demographic data sheet, IIASA researchers showed that the country’s population would decline through 2050. New methods for the analysis of aging, which take characteristics of people into account, were employed in producing the data sheet. Russia has tremendous diversity in measures of longevity and aging. Several regions have old age thresholds comparable to European nations, while others have mortality rates much closer to less developed nations. Analyzing these demographic indicators can help explain why Russia is projected to face a population decline in coming years. “Our population projections show that, despite a relatively high level of assumed migration, the Russian population will decline over the next three decades,” explains Sergei Scherbov, IIASA World Population Program deputy director. “This decline is predefined by below average levels of fertility and relatively high mortality levels. Population age composition is also an important factor, since small cohorts of women are now entering reproductive ages.” Further info: Hochrainer-Stigler S, Balkovic J, Silm K, & Timonina-Farkas A (2018). Large scale extreme risk assessment using copulas: an application to drought events under climate change for Austria. Computational Management Science (In Press) [pure.iiasa.ac.at/15647] Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler: hochrain@iiasa.ac.at Mitigating the effects of drought in Austria Insights on Russia’s expected population decline Further info: Scherbov S, Shulgin S, Andruchowitz S, Arkhangelsky V, Ediev D, Efremov I, Nikitina S, & Sanderson W (2019). Russian Demographic Data Sheet 2019. Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), Russian Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat), and International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA). [pure.iiasa.ac.at/15652] Sergei Scherbov: scherbov@iiasa.ac.at / EUROPERegional impacts www.iiasa.ac.at 23OptionsSummer 2019