Page - 22 - in options, Volume summer 2020

Researchers from the IIASA Air Quality and Greenhouse Gases, and Water Programs are working to reduce emissions, and energy and water use, while still meeting material demand. Integrated Assessment Modeling (IAM) is one of the primary tools researchers have for forecasting the consumption of these resources, as well as emissions of greenhouse gases and air pollution on a meaningful scale. The MESSAGEix model is one of the more accurate types of these models, while others often fail to take into account the complexity of manufacturing sectors. The result is incomplete data that does not address linkages across subsectors and is therefore unrealistic and not helpful for informing policy. IIASA researchers integrated a Material- Energy-Water Flow analysis and a nexus approach into the MESSAGEix model to analyze China’s iron and steel industry. The results showed that energy efficiency measures and structural changes in the country's steel industry will have large positive effects on material, energy and water use, as well as reductions of carbon emissions, but will have a negative effect on atmospheric particulate matter emissions and water withdrawals. "It is necessary to improve state-of-the-art IAM to further improve the representation of demand subsectors with process scale and associated interactions across subsectors at national, regional, and global scales,” said study lead-author Shaohui Zhang. “The tradeoffs and co-benefits of energy and resource efficiency, climate, and air quality must be taken into account. It is our hope that policymakers will consider nexus effects when designing plans to achieve multiple targets.” Despite the benefits of reducing disaster risk, many policymakers remain unmotivated to invest in risk reduction efforts before the next event occurs. A systems approach to disaster and climate resilience measurement that accounts for short-term development co-benefits in addition to longer-term risk reduction can show a way forward. The Risk and Resilience Program recently created such evidence in collaboration with the Flood Resilience Alliance to inform the Asian Development Bank. A study by researchers Finn Laurien and Adriana Keating, builds on the Flood Resilience Measurement for Communities (FRMC) tool that assesses community- level resilience. For a subset of 88 communities in Asia, the study shows that a systems approach to investing in risk reduction positively impacts broader development efforts. For example, proper waste management can help in a disaster but also in day-to-day life. A related study by Reinhard Mechler and Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler of the same program examined whether a broad range of decision-support tools is appropriate for measuring risk reduction benefits and co-benefits, creating development opportunities, and unlocking development potential. In addition to further collating such “multiple dividend” evidence, the authors found that the need to truly support participatory resilience decision-making is increasingly being acted upon. "Our studies highlight the importance of taking a systems approach to measuring resilience for effectively tackling the underlying drivers of risk and for building longer-term resilience,” explains Laurien. “The evidence, decision tools, and processes are there. Policy and implementation should follow.” A systems approach for measuring disaster and climate resilience pays off A S I A Accurately modeling emissions reductions in China’s steel industry Regional impacts Finn Laurien: laurien@iiasa.ac.at Reinhard Mechler: mechler@iiasa.ac.at Shaohui Zhang: zhangsha@iiasa.ac.at Further info: pure.iiasa.ac.at/16137 / pure.iiasa.ac.at/16224 Further info: pure.iiasa.ac.at/15938 2010 2025 2040 0 200 400 600 800 100 300 500 700 2015 2030 20452020 2035 2050 Figure: Steel demand and production from 2010 to 2050. Building Domestic appliance Stocks Machinery Shipping container Net exports Automotive Infrastructure 22 Options www.iiasa.ac.atSummer 2020