Page - 13 - in options, Volume summer 2021

1970 2010 2050 2100 Increased conservation efforts + more sustainable production + more sustainable consumption Historical Increased conservation efforts Business as usual Bend the curve IIASA research holds out hope that we can turn things around – but it won’t be easy. An influential study led by IIASA researcher David Leclère modeled how different policies could change land use, and how that would affect various aspects of biodiversity such as species extinctions. In one scenario protected areas stretch to 40% of the planets’ land (from 15% today), and 5 million km2 of degraded land is restored. The study projects that biodiversity trends should start to improve around the middle of the century – but many regions still see heavy losses, and food prices rise, undermining the UN’s goal to end hunger. A happier picture emerges if we also tackle food supply and demand: adding sustainable increases to crop yields and agricultural trade, plus a more plant- based diet and less food waste. The study projects that this should turn biodiversity trends positive before 2050, allow more land to be restored, prevent food prices from rising, provide powerful benefits for climate, and cut the use of water and fertilizers. These messages are amplified in a 2020 article led by Sandra Diaz at the University of Cordoba in Argentina, authored by dozens of leading researchers including Piero Visconti, who leads the IIASA Biodiversity, Ecology, and Conservation research group. Among other things, the authors propose outcome-based goals for species and genetic diversity, along with goals to halt the net loss of natural ecosystem areas and integrity, and ensure that loss of a rare ecosystem cannot be offset by an increase in another ecosystem. Plan B The CBD is now devising a strategy for the coming decade. Its draft Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF) embraces some of these ideas, including goals based on biodiversity outcomes, such as reducing the number of threatened species by a certain percentage, and maintaining genetic diversity. Five GBF action targets for 2030 are broadly consistent with the intervention in Leclère’s integrated scenario. The draft GBF also cites Diaz et al. frequently – although its goal statements have not yet changed in accordance with that paper’s suggestions, says Visconti. According to Leclère, the final framework, which is due to be ratified in October 2021, needs to ensure that national plans align with the desired global goals and that efforts and benefits are equitably distributed. The draft may also rely too much on area-based targets, such as expanding protected areas to cover 30% of land and sea. Protected areas are often put where they are least inconvenient, instead of most effective. “Look at the average elevation and remoteness of National Parks. They tend to be high and far; rock and ice,” notes Visconti, adding that for biodiversity impact, quality is more important than quantity. Biodiversity … is declining faster than at any time in human history 2019 IPBES Global Assessment Report on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services Estimated recent and future global biodiversity trends resulting from land-use change, with and without coordinated efforts to reverse trends — Bending the curve of terrestrial biodiversity needs an integrated strategy. Leclère, et al. 13Optionswww.iiasa.ac.at Summer 2021