Page - 9 - in options, Volume winter 2015/2016

science into policy 9winter 2015/2016 + optionswww.iiasa.ac.at iiasa research International conference explores state‑of‑the‑art climate science The conference “Our Common Future Under  Climate Change” took place in Paris in  July  2015. Building on the findings of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, the conference allowed participants—including many IIASA researchers and collaborators—to examine and discuss the latest findings on climate change mitigation and adaptation in advance of the 2015 Climate Conference (COP21) in November. Below are some highlights of the  contributions of IIASA  researchers. Taking it back: Negative emissions for climate change stabilization The use of carbon‑neutral bioenergy in  conjunction with carbon capture and storage (CCS) could be a cost‑effective part of an emission reduction strategy leading to “negative greenhouse gas emissions” in the future. At a special session of the conference, Sabine Fuss, a researcher at IIASA and the Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change, warned  against thinking of negative emissions as a magic bullet that will allow society to pursue a business‑as‑usual strategy with respect to emissions. “They are [a single] part of a mitigation portfolio which foresees large emissions reductions using ‘standard’ mitigation options in the near term,” she  says. From climate concern to  climate  action Women and the highly educated are more concerned about climate change and more likely to take action to mitigate it, a  study presented at the conference by IIASA researcher Raya Muttarak suggests. Muttarak used the Eurobarometer survey data of over 100,000 respondents in 27 EU countries to examine how “believing” (perceptions of climate change) and  “belonging” (the cultural conditions of a  social group or community) together influence “behaving” (taking action). She  found that high levels of concern did not  always translate into taking action. This  depended on demographic characteristics (such as sex) as well as the type of action (e.g.,  recycling or buying a fuel‑efficient car), and it also varied geographically. For example, in both Bulgaria and Luxembourg the same proportion of respondents (73.0%) perceived climate change as a very serious problem; however, in Bulgaria only 30.8% took action compared with 79.1% in Luxembourg. www.iiasa.ac.at/events/Common-Future IIASA model helps road‑test the  policies of tomorrow A s policymakers know, the success or failure of any new policy is determined by myriad influences, many of them unpredictable and yet interconnected. This  complexity—especially true in the case of climate change adaptation— makes it extremely difficult to identify the best strategies for the future. However, research using the IIASA model GLOBIOM is providing a real solution to this thorny problem. Identifying the strengths and weaknesses of a policy is best done by testing its outcomes under a range of possible future conditions, or scenarios. To build these scenarios many factors must be quantified and accounted for, and the knowledge of local stakeholders can provide invaluable insights. Since 2012, the CGIAR Climate Change, Agriculture, and Food Security Research Program has been working in the field of policy testing across eastern and western Africa, southern and Southeast Asia, the Andes, and Central America. The program brings together people working in food security, the environment, and rural livelihoods to design scenarios for the future of their region with the aim of testing different policy approaches. Stakeholders also identify indicators to assess changes in food security as  well as crafting narratives that give a storyline to their scenarios. This information is then integrated into models—for example, the IIASA economic land use model, GLOBIOM. GLOBIOM models the supply and demand for agricultural, forest, and bioenergy products worldwide, and considers the impact of changes in climate or socioeconomic growth of a region. The model provides projections regarding future agricultural development, food security, and land use change. The strength of this method lies in gaining local insight by involving stakeholders at multiple levels, while at the same time ensuring the credibility and consistency of the scenarios by using the models. This approach has already had real benefits for policymakers. For example, scenarios were used in the development of the Cambodian  Climate Change Action Plan of 2014, and are currently being used in Burkina Faso for developing the government’s National Plan for the Rural Sector. DB Further info www.iiasa.ac.at/Globiom § Read more at blog.iiasa.ac.at/Globiom-15 Amanda Palazzo palazzo@iiasa.ac.at Developing the new National Plan for the Rural Sector for Burkina Faso using scenario-guided planning. Photo: Kabore Herve