Page - 23 - in options, Volume winter 2015/2016

americas 23winter 2015/2016 + optionswww.iiasa.ac.at regional focus Economy main factor in US emissions decline From 2007 to 2013, US CO2 emissions from fossil fuels decreased by about 11%. This decline was widely attributed to a shift from coal to natural gas in US electricity production. However, a new analysis published in the journal Nature  Communications shows that, in  fact, the  recent economic recession accounts for the majority of the decline. “Natural gas emits half as much CO2 as coal when used to make electricity,” explains Laixiang  Sun, a  researcher in the IIASA Water Program and professor at the University of Maryland, who conducted the study with colleagues. However, he says, “this  calculation fails to take into account the release of methane from natural-gas wells and pipelines, which also contributes to climate change.” In the new study, Sun and colleagues used a method known as structural decomposition analysis (SDA) to tease apart the various contributions of six different factors related to energy use and CO2  emissions. They found that from 1997 to 2007, a period of rising emissions in the United States, 71% of that increase was due to a rise in US consumption of goods and services, with the remainder due to population growth. From 2007 to 2009, when emissions declined the most, the study finds that 83% of the decrease was due to economic factors including consumption and production changes, and just 17% of the decline related to changes in the fuel mix. After 2009, emissions declined by only about 1%, and this was due to a mix of all three  factors. KL Further info Feng K, Davis SJ, Sun L, Hubacek K (2015). Drivers of the US  CO2  emissions 1997–2013. Nature Communications 6:7714 [doi:10.1038/NCOMMS8714]. Laixiang Sun sun@iiasa.ac.at Lack of regulation means REDD+ efforts remain small‑scale From Prince Charles to Sting, saving the “earth’s lungs” has long been a cause célèbre, yet REDD+, the UN-backed carbon trading scheme for reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation, has been less successful than initially  anticipated. REDD+ is a way of offering incentives for developing countries to reduce emissions from forested lands, which account for about a fifth of total greenhouse gas emissions, and invest in low-carbon paths to sustainable development. IIASA researchers Sabine Fuss (also at the Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change in Berlin) and Wolf Reuter took part in a study led by the London School of Economics that examines the private sector’s many motivations for REDD+ engagement to see if and how they might lead to further take-up and scale-up of REDD+. These motivations range from achieving good PR, to the desire to offset product-associated emissions, to building up experience in anticipation of compliance. The researchers found that in the absence of a framework for regulation, voluntary market stakeholders will most likely stick to projects aligned to their business activities and in the hands of individuals or businesses rather than governments. However, such small-scale efforts may not make much of a difference to countries like Brazil or Mexico, with their vast swathes of forested areas. “Before the Paris conference in December, governments must include emissions reductions in their INDCs [Intended Nationally Determined Contributions, or climate pledges], but how far REDD+ will be part of this is not yet clear,” says Fuss. “So in the meantime, we have to think of creative ways to raise finance for REDD+ to  preserve our forests and associated ecosystems.” CW Further info Laing T, Taschini L, Palmer C, Wehkamp  J, Fuss S, Reuter  WH (2015). Understanding the demand for REDD+ credits. Centre  for Climate Change Economics and Policy, Working Paper No.  218; Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, Working Paper No.  193. Sabine Fuss fuss@iiasa.ac.at § Wolf  Reuter reuter@iiasa.ac.at© –25% –20% –15% –10% –5% 25% 10% 15% 20% 0% 5% Energy intensity Source: Feng et al. (2015)Year 1997 20132001 2003 2005 2007 2009 20111999 Co nsu mp tio n v olu me Production structure Populatio n Emissions Fuel mix Consumptionpatterns Drivers of US CO2 emissions 1997–2013 Roads & cattle farming are two major drivers of deforestation in  the  Brazilian  Amazon