Page - 24 - in options, Volume winter 2015/2016

asia 24 options + winter 2015/2016 www.iiasa.ac.at regional focus Testing the complex coal–crops–water relationship in Shanxi In China’s mineral-rich but arid Shanxi province, heavy industry and small-scale agriculture coexist and must compete for land and water. Increasingly, regional authorities need to find a balance between energy security (from coal production) and food security (from growing crops locally) while ensuring sustainable use of limited natural resources. In a pioneering collaboration, IIASA researchers Yuri Ermoliev, Tatiana Ermolieva, Elena Rovenskaya, and Gui-Ying Cao partnered with the China University of Mining and Technology in Beijing to develop a model that attempts to quantify energy–food–water interdependencies so that any potential adverse effects of mismatched strategic decisions can be avoided. Taking data from sources such as the Shanxi Statistical Yearbook 2012 and the China Coal Industrial Association, they tested four realistic water consumption scenarios on each of 10 scenarios of coal and agriculture production—a total of 400 scenarios. Variability (in  terms of water availability, soil quality, existing production facilities and so on) among Shanxi’s 11 prefectures was considered. Rovenskaya stresses that the model does not offer a “best” solution, but shows a number of alternatives of the coal–crops mix and demonstrates how constraints on resources affect these. “Even  minor variations in water supply can produce substantially different results in terms of allocation of coal and crops production and technologies,” she says. “A relatively small (say,  5%) increase in coal production could lead to a decline in agriculture to the extent that the province becomes food-insecure and reliant on expensive imports.” The model is now being extended to enable more robust long-term solutions, where uncertainties such as weather fluctuations, demand, international trade, price, and technological developments can be accounted for. CW Further info Xu X, Gao J, Cao G-Y, Ermoliev YM, Ermolieva TY, Kryazhimskii AV, Rovenskaya EA (2015). Modeling Water–Energy–Food Nexus for Planning Energy and Agriculture Developments: Case Study of Coal Mining Industry in Shanxi Province, China. IIASA Interim Report IR-15-020. Tatiana Ermolieva ermol@iiasa.ac.at Evidence backs India’s climate stabilization co‑benefits policy Faced with the challenge of sustaining rapid economic growth while also addressing climate change effectively, India set out a National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC) in 2008. This is a series of steps to simultaneously advance the country’s development and climate change-related objectives of adaptation and mitigation. IIASA researchers Narasimha D. Rao and David McCollum, together with colleagues from India’s Centre for Policy Research, reviewed the evidence for the ”co-benefits” between climate mitigation and development objectives in India from 10 different global integrated assessment models, including MESSAGE, which projects the greenhouse gas impacts of energy supply strategies over time. Their analysis shows that there are strong complementarities across climate mitigation, reduced air pollution, and greater energy independence. In fact, the more stringent the climate stabilization objectives are, the greater the gains in these development objectives. This illustrates that there are synergies, rather than the commonly anticipated trade-offs, across these issues. “This is the first international study to assess the quantitative evidence behind India’s co-benefits-motivated approach to climate policy,” says Rao. “Our findings reveal a need for greater efforts to look at climate policy and development objectives side by side—and not just energy security but also alleviation of poverty, access to education, and improved healthcare. Further quantitative analysis of these is needed to better inform climate change policies.” CW Further info Rao ND, McCollum D, Dubash NK, Khosla R (2015). Development and Climate Policy Synergies: Insights from Global Modelling Studies. Policy Brief, Centre for Policy Research (CPR), India. Narasimha D. Rao nrao@iiasa.ac.at Bend on the Yellow River in China’s Shanxi province Air pollution around Jama Masjid minaret in  northern Delhi