Page - 26 - in options, Volume winter 2015/2016

europe 26 options + winter 2015/2016 www.iiasa.ac.at regional focus Health co‑benefits may outweigh climate mitigation costs While aimed mainly at reducing carbon emissions, climate mitigation policies also serve to reduce air pollutants’ emissions and associated particulate matter (such as dust, soot, and smoke) that lead to disease and premature death. The  annual cost to Europe’s economy of the health effects of air pollution is estimated to be €367 billion—3% of total GDP. IIASA researchers Shilpa Rao, Wolfgang Schöpp, Peter Kolp, and Zbigniew Klimont collaborated with peers in England and France in a study that assessed the health benefits of Europe’s air pollution mitigation strategy under two different climate policy scenarios: one without any climate measures (reference scenario) and one limiting global temperature increase to 2°C by the end of the century (mitigation  scenario). Their models take into account a number of factors: global and regional climate, chemical transformation in the atmosphere, and impact of air pollution mitigation measures. They found that additional policy costs of €65 billion a year in the mitigation scenario almost offset the health benefits of €62 billion a year. Additional benefits for health, depending on the assumed value of life, could amount to between €50 billion and €295 billion a year. “Health co-benefits from an ambitious climate change policy will cover at least 75% and may in fact amount to more than 450% of the additional costs of putting the policy in place,” says Klimont. “Moreover, these will be seen in the short term and throughout the region, unlike many other benefits associated with climate mitigation.” CW Further info Schucht  S, Colette  A, Rao  S, Holland  M, Schöpp  W, Kolp  P, Klimont  Z, Bessagnet  B, Szopa  S, Vautard  R, Brignon  J-M, Rouil  L (2015). Moving towards ambitious climate policies: Monetised health benefits from improved air quality could offset mitigation costs in Europe. Environmental Science & Policy 50:252–269 [doi:10.1016/j.envsci.2015.03.001]. Zbigniew Klimont klimont@iiasa.ac.at “Faster” method tests combined effect of pollutants on water quality Nitrogen and phosphorus are natural parts of aquatic ecosystems, but excessive amounts from fossil-fuel combustion, agricultural fertilizer use, or sewage discharge cause too much algae to grow, harming water quality, food resources, and habitats—a process known as eutrophication. In an EU-funded study, IIASA researcher Ligia Azevedo and colleagues from Radboud University of Nijmegen in the Netherlands calculated the ecological risk (ER) to invertebrates (snails, worms, and insects) from exposure to these pollutants using data collected from 1985–2011 across 88 European river basins (streams and lakes). ER represents the threshold above which a species cannot tolerate pollutants, and will therefore not be observed in a given year. They found that although ER has decreased by 22% in lakes and 38% in streams since 1985, it still averaged 50% in 2011, with the risk posed by nitrogen higher than that of phosphorus in both lakes and streams. “The approach we used allowed us to consider the combined rather than individual effects of nitrogen and phosphorus,” says Azevedo. “Environmental protection agencies can use the results to identify what and where the water quality issues are, assessing the overall ecological risk of one pollutant over another, say, or in a particular river basin over another.” “It’s an easier and faster method than relying on on-site monitoring of the presence of a species, which is time-consuming and expensive, and will help managers of water bodies in their efforts to achieve the ‘good ecological status’ required by the Water  Framework Directive, sooner rather than later,” she  adds. CW Further info Azevedo LB, van Zelm R, Leuven  RSEW, Hendriks AJ, Huijbregts  MAJ (2015). Combined  ecological risks or nitrogen and phosphorus in European freshwaters. Environmental  Pollution 200:85–92 [doi:10.1016/j.envpol.2015.02.011]. Ligia Azevedo azevedol@iiasa.ac.at Very strong smog in Nizhny Novgorod, Russia