Page - 6 - in options, Volume winter 2016/2017

research news 6 options + winter 2016/2017 www.iiasa.ac.at iiasa research New insight on migration I n summer and fall 2015, thousands of refugees streamed through Austria, many of them traveling on into other countries in Europe. Although the tide of people entering the EU has now ebbed, the issues brought by migration remain at the top of the agenda. Yet  there has been little research on what this migration will mean for Europe, and how it will develop in the future. “Apart from humanitarian considerations, which must be weighed carefully, there  is a real lack of information about what is the likely impact of alternative migration scenarios in the context of Europe’s aging population, which also considers the crucial aspects of education and labor force participation. This information is necessary to inform EU  migration policy,” says IIASA World Population Program Director Wolfgang Lutz. Lutz and colleagues are working closely with policymakers to close this information  gap. In June, IIASA and the European Commission Joint Research Centre launched a new Centre of Expertise on Population and Migration, which will bring together IIASA researchers with European Commission experts to explore the drivers and impacts of migration. IIASA research has already provided some early insight on the topic. In a recent study published in the journal PLoS ONE, IIASA demographers and colleagues in Vienna provided the first assessment of the skills, attitudes, and values of asylum seekers who entered Austria in 2015. They found that the refugees, particularly those coming from Syria during the second half of the year are rather well educated and have a high  potential for integration in Austrian society. In September, the newly updated European Demographic Datasheet, which provides comprehensive data for the EU population up to 2050, showed that migration is a key factor in population growth or decline for the EU as well as individual countries. KL Further info Buber‑Ennser I, Kohlenberger J, Rengs B, Al Zalak Z, Goujon A, et al. (2016). Human capital, values, and attitudes of persons seeking refuge in Austria in 2015. PLoS ONE 11(9):e0163481 [pure.iiasa.ac.at/13831]. Wolfgang Lutz lutz@iiasa.ac.at Sustainability trade‑offs A new analysis that examines the interconnections between the Sustainable  Development Goals finds that policies focused solely on the environment tend to increase food prices. The study also  finds that sustainable consumption and  production practices are key to achieving both environmental and food  security targets simultaneously. The  researchers also found that delayed action on climate and land use could lead to even greater food price increases. www.iiasa.ac.at/news/tradeoff-16 Soil data key for food security Future food security depends on a variety  of  factors—but better soil data  could substantially help improve projections of  future crop yields, a new study shows. The  recent study is the first  global assessment of the importance of  soils in  global crop models. It shows that for yield  projections in regions that use little  fertilizer or irrigation—often poorer regions  with many small farms —crop yield variability related to soil type  can be larger  than yield variability due to weather. www.iiasa.ac.at/news/soil-16 Can palm oil be sustainable? Land used for palm oil production could be  nearly doubled without expanding into  protected or high‑biodiversity forests, according to recent IIASA research published in the journal Global Environmental Change. The study is the first to map land suitable for palm oil production on a global scale, while taking into account environmental and climate considerations. The data, which  are freely available, will be a useful  tool to identify areas for future palm  oil  investments that meet some basic  environmental standards. www.iiasa.ac.at/news/palmoil-16 Oil price and climate Sustained high or low oil prices could have  an important impact on future CO2 emissions, according to a recent study from  IIASA energy researchers. They found that the magnitude of the impact depends not  just on oil prices, but also on other uncertainties connected to energy supply and demand technologies, alternative resources, and climate policy. www.iiasa.ac.at/news/oilprice-16