Page - 19 - in options, Volume winter 2016/2017

19winter 2016/2017 + optionswww.iiasa.ac.at Just as breeding for certain characteristics can alter the gene pool, so can harvesting certain types of individuals from a population. In the context of aquatic food resources, IIASA research has shown that by always removing the larger fish, intense fishing can alter the gene pool of fish populations—so‑called fisheries‑induced evolution—putting stocks at risk of collapse, as well as reducing their productivity and recovery potential. To help prevent this, IIASA researchers have developed the Evolutionary Impact Assessment Framework, which enables managers to estimate the vulnerability of different fish populations and to identify strategies to create thriving, sustainable fisheries. Instability means insecurity When food is scarce, tensions are high. Unrest and war might both cause food shortages and be caused by them. By combining information on socioeconomic risk factors (such as political conflicts) with satellite data on physical conditions (such as soil moisture and weather) IIASA has helped develop a mobile‑phone app— SATIDA  COLLECT—which identifies communities vulnerable to food  scarcity. It is currently being trialed by Médecins sans Frontières in the Central African Republic. “One of the biggest challenges to helping communities facing food shortages is not having information on their vulnerability, and not having it in time,” says IIASA researcher Linda See. The  SATIDA COLLECT app is designed for aid charity staff to record the answers of local people to a series of simple questions linked to food security, including: ‘Have any family members left the region recently?’ ‘Has  anybody died?’ ‘How often do you eat?’ As soon as the smartphone has internet signal this information can be uploaded, combined with satellite data on physical conditions, and used to produce vital maps of hotspots for malnutrition risk. “Food security can be monitored on a weekly basis,” says See. “Also, if we know that there is an event coming that might threaten food security, like El Niño, the NGOs can use this data to improve the resilience of the areas most at risk.” Making the connections Not only does food security have a wealth of links from physical to socioeconomic systems, it is also closely connected to other essential resources. Intensifying agriculture can pollute and deplete the water supply, for instance. These interdependencies extend to energy and forestry, and to international trade. Using systems analysis to account for these connections, IIASA researchers, in partnership with the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, are working to provide policy advice to Ukraine, a country that has suffered low yields in the past and as a result has had to impose export quotas to ensure domestic food security and mitigate the impact on food prices. “We linked national models with a global multi‑region model, the IIASA Global Biosphere Management Model, which can account for interdependencies among different countries and economic sectors,” says IIASA researcher Tatiana Ermolieva. “We found that as the climate warms, Ukraine may benefit from growing crops that will suffer elsewhere, such as some cereals in France, Germany, Italy, and Spain, where yields are predicted to fall. In this way, it is possible to analyze how EU policies impact Ukraine and vice versa, as well as how both can work together to strengthen regional and global food security.” DB Further info www.mapspam.info § Folberth C, Skalský R, Moltchanova E, Balkovicˇ  J, et al. (2016). Uncertainty in  soil  data can outweigh climate impact signals in crop yield simulations. Nature  Communications 7:11872 [pure.iiasa.ac.at/13305]. § Mollet FM, Poos JJ, Dieckmann U, Rijnsdorp AD (2016). Evolutionary impact assessment of the North Sea plaice fishery. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 73(7):1126–1137 [pure.iiasa.ac.at/12378]. § Enenkel M, See L, Karner M, Álvarez M, et al. (2015). Food security monitoring via mobile data collection and remote sensing: Results from the Central African Republic. PLoS  ONE 10(11):e0142030 [pure.iiasa.ac.at/11336]. § Ermolieva TY, Ermoliev YM, Havlik P, Mosnier A, et al. (2015). Systems analysis of  robust strategic decisions to plan secure food, energy, and water provision based on the stochastic GLOBIOM model. Cybernetics and Systems Analysis 51(1):125–133 [pure.iiasa.ac.at/11518]. Christian Folberth folberth@iiasa.ac.at § Linda See see@iiasa.ac.at § Tatiana Ermolieva ermol@iiasa.ac.at © Claudiad | iStockphoto.com BREAD