Page - 23 - in options, Volume winter 2016/2017

americas 23winter 2016/2017 + optionswww.iiasa.ac.at regional focus Managing an endangered river across the US–Mexico border The Rio Grande/Bravo is a lifeline for an expansive desert in the southwest USA and northern Mexico. From Colorado to the Gulf of Mexico, over 3,000 km, people depend on the river to quench their thirst and irrigate their crops. The river also forms the boundary between the USA and Mexico for 2,034 km. Yet as the river flows from the USA, along the border, and into Mexico, it brings with it conflicts and challenges. The  water level in the river is declining as use exceeds supply— an  unsustainable situation. Meanwhile, a growing population in the region and climate change are putting even greater pressure on the limited water supply, exacerbating the problems. In a study published in the journal Water, IIASA researcher Luzma Fabiola Nava showed how improving communication and stakeholder involvement could bring consensus solutions for the shared river, which is governed by a treaty that dates from 1944. The study provides a mechanism to work within the treaty, and four policy recommendations that could help improve water resources management in the region. “Everyone wants to preserve their water supply, even when there is not enough water,” explains Nava, a  postdoctoral fellow in the IIASA Water Program and the author of the new study. “The water supply isn’t enough anymore to meet the increasing demands. If we don’t allow for flexibility in the treaty, all these problems are going to get worse.” KL Further info Nava  LF, Brown  C, Demeter  K, Lasserre  F, Milanes‑Murcia  M, Mumme  S, Sandoval‑Solis  S (2016). Existing opportunities to adapt the Rio Grande/Bravo Basin water resources allocation framework. Water 8(7):291 [pure.iiasa.ac.at/13341]. Luzma Fabiola Nava navajim@iiasa.ac.at Freeing crude oil exports yields benefits In early 2016, the USA lifted its crude oil export ban—a restraint that had been in place for more than four decades. The recent US shale oil boom eventually culminated in a removal of the ban and, to investigate whether this was a beneficial decision for the country, IIASA researchers modeled two separate scenarios: one  projection with the ban remaining in place, and one where the USA was free to export crude oil. The IIASA research embeds the structure of the US crude oil market in the global trade network and compares production levels, strategic investments, and the difference in price between crude oil and the refined product between the two scenarios. The researchers also analyzed the differences in imports and exports in the USA and investments and adaptations by producers, refiners, and consumers across the world. The study found a significant expansion of the US sweet crude exports—a type of crude oil low in low sulfur. This was to the benefit of domestic producers who can sell their crude oil at global market prices. The global markets will also gain from the lift of the ban as countries who previously had to refine heavy (denser) crude oil can replace some of this with sweet crude imports. “Ending the ban allows for a more efficient utilization of refineries, gives rise to a more beneficial trade of different crude and product types, and removes a significant distortion of the global oil market in past decades,” says IIASA researcher Daniel Huppmann. JP Further info Langer  L, Huppmann  D, Holz  F (2016). Lifting the US crude oil export ban: A numerical partial equilibrium analysis. Energy Policy 97:258–266 [pure.iiasa.ac.at/13493]. Daniel Huppmann huppmann@iiasa.ac.at