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research tools & methods 7www.iiasa.ac.at winter 2017/18 ◼ options I n many countries around the world— most famously Brazil, Indonesia, and the Congo—economic growth has been accompanied by deforestation. The link seems obvious—as economies grow, people often cut down forests to make way for farming and other commercial activities. But do forests have to disappear in order to make way for economic development? In fact, deforestation varies across countries. Economists have found it difficult to back up observations linking deforestation and economic growth with an explanation of the mechanisms: knowledge that is key for policymakers who want to preserve forests while promoting economic development. That’s why scientists in two IIASA research programs recently combined their expertise to take a fresh look at the question. In a study recently published in the journal Scientific Reports, the researchers combined satellite data on forest cover with economic data from 130 different countries. In economics, the hypothetical link between economic development and environmental degradation is known as an “environmental Kuznet’s curve,” explains IIASA researcher Jesus Crespo Cuaresma, who led the study. “Theory predicts that economic growth in poor countries increases environmental depletion, but that the effect reverts for developed economies.” In the new study, the first to link theory with global data on both economics and satellite-derived forest cover across borders, the researchers found what they described as “half of a Kuznet’s curve.” That is, the data agreed with the hypothesized link between economic development and deforestation for developing countries, but for wealthier countries, the effect disappeared. Working across borders Crespo-Cuaresma is an economist at the Vienna University of Economics and Business and the IIASA World Population Program, and works primarily on questions of economic growth and human development. But he didn’t have a background in satellite-derived forest cover data. Ian McCallum, a study coauthor, works with satellite data on land cover. The idea to link economic data with satellite imagery came about through a chance conversation on the bus from Vienna to IIASA in Laxenburg. McCallum and his team in the IIASA Ecosystem Services and Management Program had puzzled over stark differences they saw in forest cover across borders, such as between Haiti and the Dominican Republic and Brazil and neighboring Bolivia. He says, “We asked our colleague Jesus to help explain what and why this is happening, and it grew from there.” Crespo Cuaresma says, “What’s exciting about this study was that we used data that have never been exploited at a global level to answer the particular question we posed. It was like a large-scale, natural experiment, which in economics is extremely rare. For the first time, we were able to empirically assess this effect in a convincing fashion, making use of natural borders.” The study has implications in particular for countries on the “dangerous” part of the deforestation curve, where economic growth is likely to lead to major forest cover loss in the near future. The results suggest that Africa in particular is expected to be particularly vulnerable to forest cover loss as sub-Saharan economies catch up on income per capita with the rest of the world. KL Innovative study links forests and economy Do forests have to disappear in order to make way for economic development? Further info Crespo Cuaresma J, Danylo O, Fritz S, McCallum I, Obersteiner M, See L, & Walsh B (2017). Economic Development and Forest Cover: Evidence from Satellite Data. Scientific Reports 7: art.no.40678. [pure.iiasa.ac.at/12064] www.iiasa.ac.at/news/forest-dev-17 Jesus Crespo Cuaresma crespo@iiasa.ac.at Ian McCallum mccallum@iiasa.ac.at The Brazilian (North) / Bolivian (South) border. Brazil Bolivia Low Medium High Forst Cover iiasa research