Page - 16 - in options, Volume winter 2017/2018

www.iiasa.ac.atoptions ◼ winter 2017/1816 Program found that by taking appropriate adaptation measures at targeted locations across the country—namely expanding irrigation, providing subsidies for fertilizer, and investing in infrastructure—policymakers could improve smallholders’ income and food security. “In some regions we found that there are currently no irrigation systems in place, but the biophysical conditions would be suitable for it, leading to a large untapped production potential,” explains Boere. “In other areas we saw that there is a lack of infrastructure, making it difficult to get products to market.” The researchers used a new methodology to map each farm according to factors including its size, activities, and intensity, as well as climate and environment. They could then model which policy measures would be most effective in each area. Systems focusing on high-value products rely on a strong infrastructure for trade purposes. “Our research suggests that mixed crop-livestock systems would be beneficial,” explains Boere. “They can pool their risk and are less prone to food insecurity.” The results are being used to provide support to Ethiopian policymakers, as well as helping the International Fund for Agricultural Development implement effective irrigation projects in the country. Dealing with drought Currently around a third of the world’s population is coping with water scarcity, which is defined as more than 40% of available water being used. The largest population living with water stress is concentrated in Asia and the Middle East, but water shortages are also occurring in the USA and many other countries around the world. Climate change is expected to worsen this situation, through an increased number of extreme weather events such as droughts, making it harder to implement and maintain secure water supply systems. In a recent paper, IIASA Water Program Deputy Director Yoshihide Wada and coauthors give six clear adaptation strategies that could be implemented to relieve water stress. The strategies include infrastructure projects to increase supply, such as building more reservoirs and increasing sea water desalination, as well as more plausible socioeconomic interventions such as improving irrigation efficiency, which would reduce water demand. The researchers created models for each country and water basin, based on projected climate, population, and water security issues. They then used the models to predict how different combinations of the six technologies or practices in each area would affect the fraction of the global population under water stress, and found that a reduction is possible by 2050. “I am an optimist,” says Wada. “Before this project, there wasn’t much research on how we could adapt to reduce water stress, and many thought the situation was untenable. Now at least we know that something can be done.” However, unsurprisingly, the research shows that improving this situation would take an unprecedented effort: “If every country under water stress employed four of the six strategies at the same time,” explained Wada, “the proportion of people in the world who are facing water stress would stabilize rather than continue to grow.” “The problem is that although water scarcity is a regional issue, water stress is exacerbated by global processes, including climate change, population and economic growth, and food production and trade. Stabilization and even a significant reduction in the number of people suffering water stress are possible by 2050, but strong international commitment and strategic efforts are required.” Fighting hunger Food security is another pressing issue, especially in developing countries. IIASA researcher Esther Boere has been focusing on smallholder farmers in Ethiopia, who are especially vulnerable to the threats of climate change. Boere and her team in the IIASA Ecosystems Services and Management Working together to adapt to changing climate Sea level rise, fiercer storms, heat waves, fires, and droughts: the effects of climate change are increasingly being seen around the globe. Adapting now for present and future change is essential to survival, but it requires careful coordination and cooperation. IIASA research is providing clear guidance on the most effective measures to adopt—as well as where, how, and by whom.